MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Mar 31, 2026, 10:39 AM ET · Self-improving model

4-2
Record
66.7%
Win Rate
+2.62u
Units P/L
5
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-03-31
#1 1.7
WSH @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Tue, Mar 31, 10:40 PM UTC
ML AWAY +155
at Hard Rock Bet (+155) +59.1% EV
62% conf 1u
Model vs Market
-7.4
Pitcher
0.0
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Washington Nationals win prob: 62.4% model vs 37.7% market (24.7% edge)
  • Underdog value at +155
#2 1.7
NYY @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Wed, Apr 1, 1:40 AM UTC
ML AWAY -110
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +24.5% EV
65% conf 1u
Model vs Market
-4.5
Pitcher
-1.6
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • New York Yankees win prob: 65.2% model vs 50.3% market (14.9% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Max Fried (2.86 ERA) vs Logan Gilbert (3.44 ERA)
#3 1.7
BOS @ HOU
Daikin Park · Wed, Apr 1, 12:10 AM UTC
ML HOME -149
at Bovada (-149) +18.0% EV
71% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+4.0
Pitcher
+3.2
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Houston Astros win prob: 70.6% model vs 57.4% market (13.2% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Hunter Brown (2.43 ERA) vs Brayan Bello (3.35 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-03-302-0+2.47uROI: +123.5%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-280-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
2026-03-31 WSH@PHI ML AWAY +155NYY@SEA ML AWAY -110BOS@HOU ML HOME -149
2026-03-30 CLE@LAD ML AWAY +160BOS@HOU OVER 8.5
2026-03-29 KC@ATL ML AWAY +138LAA@HOU OVER 8.5
2026-03-28 KC@ATL ML AWAY +129
2026-03-27 ARI@LAD UNDER 8.5
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
25%
Weather
20%
Line Value
10%
Line Movement
15%
Total Bias: +0.54 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 5
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement