MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 3, 2026, 6:10 PM ET · Self-improving model

89-91-1
Record
49.4%
Win Rate
-11.34u
Units P/L
101
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-03
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.1
PIT @ WSH
Nationals Park · Fri, Jul 3, 10:45 PM UTC
ML HOME -150
at Hard Rock Bet (-150) -1.6% EV
59% conf
Model vs Market
+2.6
Pitcher
+6.3
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Washington Nationals win prob: 59.1% model vs 58.0% market (1.1% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Foster Griffin (2.93 ERA) vs Mitch Keller (4.87 ERA)
#2
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 0.7
SF @ COL
Coors Field · Sat, Jul 4, 12:10 AM UTC
ML HOME +130
at Hard Rock Bet (+130) -2.4% EV
42% conf
Model vs Market
+3.5
Pitcher
0.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Colorado Rockies win prob: 42.4% model vs 42.1% market (0.4% edge)
  • Underdog value at +130
  • Scout pick (edge 0.7 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
#3
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.4
TOR @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Sat, Jul 4, 2:10 AM UTC
ML AWAY -130
at Hard Rock Bet (-130) -2.7% EV
55% conf
Model vs Market
-0.6
Pitcher
-6.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Toronto Blue Jays win prob: 55.0% model vs 54.5% market (0.5% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Dylan Cease (3.02 ERA) vs Luis Castillo (4.93 ERA)
  • Scout pick (edge 1.4 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUL
3
FRI
· PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM
· SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM
· TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
JUN
25
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
24
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
23
TUE
1-2 · -0.34u
L MIL @ CIN OVER 9.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
5:39 PM +0.91u
L PHI @ WSH ML HOME +150
5:39 PM -0.25u
JUN
22
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
L LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
21
SUN
1-1 · -0.53u
L CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM -1.00u
W BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM +0.47u
JUN
20
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
18%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.07 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 101
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement