MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 3, 2026, 6:13 PM ET · Self-improving model

13-10
Record
56.5%
Win Rate
+1.85u
Units P/L
9
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-03
#1 2.5
PHI @ COL
Coors Field · Fri, Apr 3, 8:10 PM UTC
ML HOME +170
at Hard Rock Bet (+170) +39.3% EV
52% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+5.8
Pitcher
+4.2
Weather
-1.5
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Colorado Rockies win prob: 51.6% model vs 35.6% market (16.0% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Michael Lorenzen (4.64 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (6.01 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +170
#2 2.4
HOU @ ATH
Sutter Health Park · Sat, Apr 4, 1:40 AM UTC
ML HOME -110
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +42.0% EV
74% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+8.3
Pitcher
+1.6
Weather
-1.5
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Athletics win prob: 74.4% model vs 50.2% market (24.2% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Jeffrey Springs (4.11 ERA) vs Cristian Javier (4.62 ERA)
#3 2.3
LAD @ WSH
Nationals Park · Fri, Apr 3, 5:05 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +5.4% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 12.5 vs Market: 9.5
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
-0.9
Weather
+1.8
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 12.5 total vs 9.5 market (+3.0 run gap)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 82.4°F, 13.8mph wind
#4 1.7
ATL @ ARI
Chase Field · Sat, Apr 4, 1:45 AM UTC
ML HOME -105
at Hard Rock Bet (-105) +40.2% EV
72% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+7.8
Pitcher
-3.5
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Arizona Diamondbacks win prob: 71.8% model vs 49.1% market (22.7% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (5.02 ERA) vs Grant Holmes (3.99 ERA)
#5 2.2
MIL @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Fri, Apr 3, 11:45 PM UTC
UNDER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-135) -2.3% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 7.8 vs Market: 9.5
Model vs Market
-3.5
Pitcher
-5.3
Weather
-1.5
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.8 total vs 9.5 market (-1.7 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Chad Patrick (3.53 ERA) vs Luinder Avila (1.29 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 46°F, 12.6mph wind
  • Book spread: 9-9.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
3
FRI
· PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM
· HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM
· LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM
· ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
29%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Weather
13%
Line Value
13%
Line Movement
20%
Total Bias: +1.06 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 9
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement