MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 7, 2026, 5:26 PM ET · Self-improving model

38-51
Record
42.7%
Win Rate
-17.24u
Units P/L
44
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-07
#1 1.3
TEX @ NYY
Yankee Stadium · Thu, May 7, 4:35 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Bovada (-120) +0.3% EV
55% conf 0.25u Model: 9.6 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+2.0
Pitcher
+4.6
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 9.6 total vs 8.5 market (+1.1 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: MacKenzie Gore (4.67 ERA) vs Paul Blackburn (6.85 ERA)
  • Scout pick (edge 1.3 below 2.0 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-060-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-051-0+0.91uROI: +90.9%
2026-05-042-0+1.61uROI: +80.7%
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
MAY
7
THU
· TEX @ NYY OVER 8.5
10:54 AM
MAY
6
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L SD @ SF OVER 8.5
10:53 AM -1.50u
L ATL @ SEA ML AWAY +115
10:53 AM -0.25u
MAY
5
TUE
1-0 · +0.91u
W LAD @ HOU UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM +0.91u
MAY
4
MON
2-0 · +1.61u
W TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM +0.81u
W SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM +0.80u
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
29
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
26
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
25
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
24
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
23
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: -0.85 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.0 Min ML Edge: 2.5 Version: 44
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement