MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 5, 2026, 3:18 PM ET · Self-improving model

16-15
Record
51.6%
Win Rate
-0.23u
Units P/L
11
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-05
#1 3.8
SEA @ LAA
Angel Stadium · Sun, Apr 5, 8:07 PM UTC
ML AWAY -170
at Hard Rock Bet (-170) +31.3% EV
83% conf 1.5u
Model vs Market
-6.7
Pitcher
-10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Seattle Mariners win prob: 82.7% model vs 60.4% market (22.3% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Luis Castillo (3.54 ERA) vs Ryan Johnson (7.36 ERA)
#2 2.8
CHC @ CLE
Progressive Field · Sun, Apr 5, 5:15 PM UTC
ML HOME +115
at Hard Rock Bet (+115) +66.8% EV
78% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+9.8
Pitcher
+2.4
Weather
-3.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Cleveland Guardians win prob: 77.6% model vs 45.0% market (32.6% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Parker Messick (2.72 ERA) vs Shota Imanaga (3.73 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +115
#3 2.6
PHI @ COL
Coors Field · Sun, Apr 5, 7:10 PM UTC
ML HOME +144
at Bovada (+144) +90.8% EV
78% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
-1.5
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Colorado Rockies win prob: 78.2% model vs 39.5% market (38.7% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano (4.64 ERA) vs Taijuan Walker (4.08 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +144
#4 2.6
ATL @ ARI
Chase Field · Sun, Apr 5, 8:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY -109
at Bovada (-109) +36.3% EV
71% conf 1u
Model vs Market
-6.4
Pitcher
-5.6
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Atlanta Braves win prob: 71.1% model vs 49.9% market (21.2% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Martín Pérez (3.54 ERA) vs Brandon Pfaadt (5.25 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
5
SUN
· SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM
· CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM
· PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM
· ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM
APR
4
SAT
1-3 · -1.90u
W HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM +1.60u
L MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM -1.00u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM -1.00u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM -1.50u
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
29%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Weather
11%
Line Value
13%
Line Movement
20%
Total Bias: +1.17 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.1 Min ML Edge: 1.6 Version: 11
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement