MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 5, 2026, 11:06 AM ET · Self-improving model

93-92-1
Record
50.3%
Win Rate
-9.65u
Units P/L
103
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-05
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.9
SF @ COL
Coors Field · Sun, Jul 5, 8:00 PM UTC
OVER 12.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +0.1% EV
56% conf Model: 15 vs Market: 13
Model vs Market
+6.0
Pitcher
+6.4
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 15 total vs 13 market (+2.0 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Tyler Mahle (5.67 ERA) vs Tanner Gordon (6.69 ERA)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 86.6°F, 4.4mph wind
  • Book spread: 12.5-13 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.3
PHI @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Sun, Jul 5, 7:00 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +0.1% EV
56% conf Model: 11.2 vs Market: 10
Model vs Market
+3.6
Pitcher
+5.3
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11.2 total vs 10 market (+1.2 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Aaron Nola (6.04 ERA) vs Luinder Avila (5.4 ERA)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 89.7°F, 10mph wind
  • Book spread: 9.5-10 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-041-1+0.51uROI: +40.6%
2026-07-033-0+1.18uROI: +78.9%
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
Pick History
JUL
5
SUN
· SF @ COL OVER 12.5
11:06 AM
· PHI @ KC OVER 9.5
11:06 AM
JUL
4
SAT
1-1 · +0.51u
L PHI @ KC ML HOME +130
10:58 AM -0.25u
W SF @ COL ML AWAY -132
6:03 PM +0.76u
JUL
3
FRI
3-0 · +1.18u
W PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM +0.67u
W SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM +0.33u
W TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM +0.19u
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
JUN
25
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
24
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
23
TUE
1-2 · -0.34u
L MIL @ CIN OVER 9.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
5:39 PM +0.91u
L PHI @ WSH ML HOME +150
5:39 PM -0.25u
JUN
22
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
L LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM -0.25u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
19%
Weather
18%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.07 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 103
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement