MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET · Self-improving model

31-46
Record
40.3%
Win Rate
-18.27u
Units P/L
24
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-18
#1 3.5
CIN @ MIN
Target Field · Sat, Apr 18, 6:10 PM UTC
ML HOME -135
at Hard Rock Bet (-135) +41.7% EV
81% conf 1.5u
Model vs Market
+8.8
Pitcher
+10.0
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Minnesota Twins win prob: 81.4% model vs 55.4% market (26.0% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Taj Bradley (1.25 ERA) vs Andrew Abbott (5.85 ERA)
#2 2.2
TB @ PIT
PNC Park · Sat, Apr 18, 8:05 PM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) -1.2% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 6.6 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-3.0
Pitcher
-5.6
Weather
-2.4
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.6 total vs 7.5 market (-0.9 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Drew Rasmussen (2.76 ERA) vs Paul Skenes (1.97 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 64°F, 8.4mph wind
  • Book spread: 7-7.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#3 2.0
ATL @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Sat, Apr 18, 11:15 PM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-135) -2.5% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 7.1 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-1.5
Pitcher
-5.4
Weather
-2.4
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Chris Sale (3.27 ERA) vs Cristopher Sánchez (2.01 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 53.4°F, 8.2mph wind
  • Book spread: 7-7.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-073-1+2.07uROI: +46.0%
2026-04-061-2-1.00uROI: -16.7%
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
Pick History
APR
18
SAT
· CIN @ MIN ML HOME -135
10:14 AM
· TB @ PIT UNDER 7.5
10:14 AM
· ATL @ PHI UNDER 7.5
10:14 AM
APR
17
FRI
2-0 · +2.33u
W KC @ NYY UNDER 8.5
10:26 AM +1.25u
W SD @ LAA ML HOME -139
10:26 AM +1.08u
APR
16
THU
0-3 · -3.00u
L COL @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:34 AM -1.00u
L TOR @ MIL OVER 8
10:34 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ NYY UNDER 10
12:39 PM -1.00u
APR
15
WED
0-2 · -2.00u
L CLE @ STL OVER 8.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
L NYM @ LAD UNDER 8
10:32 AM -1.00u
APR
14
TUE
4-0 · +3.81u
W CHC @ PHI ML AWAY +120
10:34 AM +1.20u
W NYM @ LAD UNDER 7.5
10:34 AM +0.91u
W ARI @ BAL UNDER 9
12:32 PM +0.87u
W COL @ HOU OVER 8.5
6:20 PM +0.83u
APR
13
MON
0-1 · -1.00u
L CHC @ PHI UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
APR
12
SUN
0-4 · -4.50u
L LAA @ CIN UNDER 8.5
10:13 AM -1.50u
L CWS @ KC UNDER 9
10:13 AM -1.00u
L MIA @ DET ML AWAY +170
10:13 AM -1.00u
L HOU @ SEA OVER 7.5
3:20 PM -1.00u
APR
11
SAT
3-3 · -0.46u
W LAA @ CIN ML HOME -135
10:11 AM +0.74u
L NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
10:11 AM -1.00u
L ARI @ PHI OVER 8.5
10:11 AM -1.00u
L TEX @ LAD UNDER 8.5
12:13 PM -1.00u
W WSH @ MIL UNDER 8.5
3:19 PM +0.80u
W CLE @ ATL UNDER 8
6:11 PM +1.00u
APR
10
FRI
0-4 · -4.50u
L BOS @ STL ML AWAY -145
10:23 AM -1.50u
L COL @ SD ML AWAY +155
10:23 AM -1.00u
L WSH @ MIL ML HOME -210
10:23 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ CIN ML HOME -185
12:24 PM -1.00u
APR
9
THU
1-4 · -3.73u
L CIN @ MIA ML AWAY +105
10:35 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ NYM UNDER 7.5
10:35 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN OVER 8
10:35 AM -1.00u
L COL @ SD UNDER 7.5
12:37 PM -1.00u
W CWS @ KC UNDER 9.5
3:32 PM +0.77u
APR
8
WED
0-4 · -4.00u
L HOU @ COL OVER 11.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L STL @ WSH OVER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN ML AWAY -149
10:33 AM -1.00u
L ATL @ LAA UNDER 8.5
3:33 PM -1.00u
APR
7
TUE
3-1 · +2.07u
W BAL @ CWS ML AWAY -140
10:32 AM +1.07u
L SEA @ TEX OVER 7.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
W DET @ MIN UNDER 6.5
10:32 AM +1.00u
W CHC @ TB ML AWAY +100
3:30 PM +1.00u
APR
6
MON
1-2 · -1.00u
L CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM -2.00u
W HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM +3.00u
L SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM -2.00u
APR
5
SUN
1-3 · -2.06u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM -1.50u
L CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM -1.00u
W PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM +1.44u
L ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM -1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
21%
Pitcher Edge
20%
Weather
18%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
21%
Total Bias: -0.23 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.0 Min ML Edge: 2.9 Version: 24
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement