MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jun 22, 2026, 11:38 AM ET · Self-improving model

78-80-1
Record
49.4%
Win Rate
-10.59u
Units P/L
90
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-06-22
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.0
CHC @ NYM
Citi Field · Mon, Jun 22, 11:10 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +2.2% EV
55% conf Model: 10.3 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+5.6
Pitcher
+6.8
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 10.3 total vs 8.5 market (+1.8 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Shota Imanaga (4.26 ERA) vs Kodai Senga (9 ERA)
#2
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.6
LAD @ MIN
Target Field · Mon, Jun 22, 11:40 PM UTC
ML HOME +130
at Hard Rock Bet (+130) +1.7% EV
44% conf
Model vs Market
+6.3
Pitcher
+2.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Minnesota Twins win prob: 44.2% model vs 42.2% market (2.0% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Zebby Matthews (4.78 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (5.37 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +130
  • Scout pick (edge 1.6 below 2.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-150-2-1.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-142-0+0.83uROI: +165.5%
2026-06-111-0+0.21uROI: +83.3%
2026-06-100-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-090-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-081-1-0.81uROI: -64.6%
2026-06-072-0+1.38uROI: +110.7%
2026-06-050-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-040-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUN
22
MON
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
· LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM
JUN
21
SUN
1-1 · -0.53u
L CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM -1.00u
W BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM +0.47u
JUN
20
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
19
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L LAA @ ATH ML AWAY +140
11:01 AM -1.00u
JUN
18
THU
1-0 · +0.36u
W CWS @ NYY ML AWAY +145
5:46 PM +0.36u
JUN
17
WED
0-2 · -0.50u
L COL @ CHC ML AWAY +160
11:04 AM -0.25u
L CLE @ MIL ML AWAY +107
5:44 PM -0.25u
JUN
16
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L MIA @ PHI ML AWAY +146
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
15
MON
0-2 · -1.25u
L TB @ LAD ML AWAY +141
11:57 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ ARI ML AWAY +110
11:57 AM -0.25u
JUN
14
SUN
2-0 · +0.83u
W COL @ ATH ML AWAY +166
10:44 AM +0.41u
W LAD @ CWS ML HOME +165
12:42 PM +0.41u
JUN
13
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
12
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
11
THU
1-0 · +0.21u
W ARI @ MIA ML HOME -120
11:09 AM +0.21u
JUN
10
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L CHC @ COL OVER 11.5
11:03 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ MIA OVER 8.5
5:44 PM -0.25u
JUN
9
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L LAD @ PIT ML HOME -110
11:25 AM -0.25u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
19%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.15 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.5 Min ML Edge: 2.5 Version: 90
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement