MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 7, 2026, 6:16 PM ET · Self-improving model

97-93-1
Record
51.1%
Win Rate
-7.69u
Units P/L
105
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-07
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.3
ATH @ DET
Comerica Park · Tue, Jul 7, 10:40 PM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) -1.0% EV
55% conf Model: 6.7 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-5.6
Pitcher
-4.6
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.7 total vs 8.5 market (-1.8 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: J.T. Ginn (3.04 ERA) vs Tarik Skubal (3.15 ERA)
  • Book spread: 8-8.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.3
MIL @ STL
Busch Stadium · Tue, Jul 7, 11:45 PM UTC
ML HOME +175
at Bovada (+175) +1.7% EV
37% conf
Model vs Market
+5.8
Pitcher
+1.3
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • St. Louis Cardinals win prob: 37.0% model vs 35.1% market (1.9% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Hunter Dobbins (4.13 ERA) vs Robert Gasser (4.54 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +175
  • Scout pick (edge 1.3 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
#3
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.4
KC @ NYM
Citi Field · Tue, Jul 7, 11:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +125
at Hard Rock Bet (+125) -1.5% EV
44% conf
Model vs Market
-1.9
Pitcher
-4.0
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Kansas City Royals win prob: 43.8% model vs 43.1% market (0.7% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (4.2 ERA) vs Cionel Pérez (5.5 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +125
  • Scout pick (edge 1.4 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-062-0+1.67uROI: +83.3%
2026-07-052-1+0.29uROI: +12.8%
2026-07-041-1+0.51uROI: +40.6%
2026-07-033-0+1.18uROI: +78.9%
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
Pick History
JUL
7
TUE
· ATH @ DET UNDER 8.5
12:20 PM
· MIL @ STL ML HOME +175
12:20 PM
· KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
6:16 PM
JUL
6
MON
2-0 · +1.67u
W COL @ LAD OVER 9.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
W NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
JUL
5
SUN
2-1 · +0.29u
W SF @ COL OVER 12.5
11:06 AM +0.80u
L PHI @ KC OVER 9.5
11:06 AM -1.00u
W SD @ LAD ML AWAY +195
6:07 PM +0.49u
JUL
4
SAT
1-1 · +0.51u
L PHI @ KC ML HOME +130
10:58 AM -0.25u
W SF @ COL ML AWAY -132
6:03 PM +0.76u
JUL
3
FRI
3-0 · +1.18u
W PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM +0.67u
W SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM +0.33u
W TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM +0.19u
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
JUN
25
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
24
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
19%
Weather
18%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: -0.17 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 105
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement