MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 13, 2026, 5:37 PM ET · Self-improving model

48-54
Record
47.1%
Win Rate
-10.38u
Units P/L
50
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-13
#1 1.5
MIA @ MIN
Target Field · Wed, May 13, 11:40 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +2.2% EV
55% conf 0.25u Model: 9.8 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+5.1
Pitcher
+3.1
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 9.8 total vs 8.5 market (+1.3 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Max Meyer (2.79 ERA) vs Simeon Woods Richardson (6.92 ERA)
  • Scout pick (edge 1.5 below 2.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-123-1+3.22uROI: +75.7%
2026-05-111-0+0.39uROI: +155.0%
2026-05-102-0+1.39uROI: +79.2%
2026-05-092-1+1.45uROI: +64.6%
2026-05-081-1+0.20uROI: +40.0%
2026-05-071-0+0.21uROI: +83.3%
2026-05-060-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-051-0+0.91uROI: +90.9%
2026-05-042-0+1.61uROI: +80.7%
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
MAY
13
WED
· MIA @ MIN OVER 8.5
10:59 AM
MAY
12
TUE
3-1 · +3.22u
W SD @ MIL OVER 8.5
10:55 AM +1.30u
L LAA @ CLE ML AWAY +115
10:55 AM -0.25u
W WSH @ CIN OVER 9.5
5:34 PM +1.36u
W ARI @ TEX OVER 7.5
5:34 PM +0.80u
MAY
11
MON
1-0 · +0.39u
W SF @ LAD ML AWAY +155
11:02 AM +0.39u
MAY
10
SUN
2-0 · +1.39u
W ATL @ LAD UNDER 9.5
10:24 AM +1.11u
W DET @ KC ML AWAY +110
10:24 AM +0.28u
MAY
9
SAT
2-1 · +1.45u
W DET @ KC UNDER 9.5
10:22 AM +0.83u
W NYY @ MIL UNDER 7.5
10:22 AM +0.87u
L PIT @ SF UNDER 7.5
5:21 PM -0.25u
MAY
8
FRI
1-1 · +0.20u
W COL @ PHI ML AWAY +180
10:34 AM +0.45u
L MIN @ CLE UNDER 7.5
5:28 PM -0.25u
MAY
7
THU
1-0 · +0.21u
W TEX @ NYY OVER 8.5
10:54 AM +0.21u
MAY
6
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L SD @ SF OVER 8.5
10:53 AM -1.50u
L ATL @ SEA ML AWAY +115
10:53 AM -0.25u
MAY
5
TUE
1-0 · +0.91u
W LAD @ HOU UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM +0.91u
MAY
4
MON
2-0 · +1.61u
W TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM +0.81u
W SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM +0.80u
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: +0.81 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.5 Min ML Edge: 3.0 Version: 50
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement