MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Aug 3, 2026, 1:34 AM ET · Self-improving model

116-125-1
Record
48.1%
Win Rate
-19.05u
Units P/L
28
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-08-03
#1
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.1
WSH @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Mon, Aug 3, 10:40 PM UTC
ML AWAY +135
at Hard Rock Bet (+135) +1.0% EV
43% conf
Model vs Market
-3.9
Pitcher
0.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Washington Nationals win prob: 43.0% model vs 41.8% market (1.2% edge)
  • Away underdog at +135 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-08-010-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-311-0+0.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-07-291-2-0.21uROI: -27.3%
2026-07-281-0+0.25uROI: +100.0%
2026-07-261-1+0.14uROI: +28.5%
2026-07-251-2-0.25uROI: -33.3%
2026-07-241-1+0.04uROI: +9.0%
2026-07-231-1+0.04uROI: +8.5%
2026-07-222-0+0.57uROI: +114.5%
2026-07-212-0+1.86uROI: +93.1%
2026-07-200-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-192-1+0.74uROI: +24.7%
2026-07-180-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-170-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
AUG
3
MON
· WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +135
1:33 AM
AUG
2
SUN
· BOS @ LAD ML AWAY +150
1:19 AM
· MIN @ SEA ML AWAY +120
1:19 AM
AUG
1
SAT
0-2 · -0.50u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +125
1:19 AM -0.25u
L KC @ COL ML AWAY +110
6:00 PM -0.25u
JUL
31
FRI
1-0 · +0.27u
W MIA @ NYM ML AWAY +109
1:27 AM +0.27u
JUL
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
29
WED
1-2 · -0.21u
L SEA @ LAD ML AWAY +126
1:12 AM -0.25u
W ARI @ PIT ML AWAY +118
1:12 AM +0.29u
L TOR @ WSH OVER 9.5
8:54 AM -0.25u
JUL
28
TUE
1-0 · +0.25u
W CHC @ STL OVER 9
12:56 AM +0.25u
JUL
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
26
SUN
1-1 · +0.14u
W KC @ DET ML AWAY +157
1:23 AM +0.39u
L CLE @ TB ML AWAY +125
7:54 AM -0.25u
JUL
25
SAT
1-2 · -0.25u
W CLE @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:58 AM +0.25u
L COL @ MIL ML AWAY +190
7:55 AM -0.25u
L ATH @ MIN ML AWAY +130
6:00 PM -0.25u
JUL
24
FRI
1-1 · +0.04u
L KC @ DET ML AWAY +235
1:12 AM -0.25u
W NYY @ PHI ML AWAY +118
6:10 PM +0.29u
JUL
23
THU
1-1 · +0.04u
W MIN @ CLE ML AWAY +117
1:17 AM +0.29u
L KC @ DET ML AWAY +190
6:09 PM -0.25u
JUL
22
WED
2-0 · +0.57u
W BAL @ BOS ML AWAY +125
1:00 AM +0.31u
W DET @ CHC ML AWAY +104
6:10 PM +0.26u
JUL
21
TUE
2-0 · +1.86u
W LAD @ PHI UNDER 8.5
1:12 AM +0.95u
W DET @ CHC OVER 8.5
1:12 AM +0.91u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
27%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
29%
Total Bias: -0.18 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 28
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement