MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jun 23, 2026, 5:39 PM ET · Self-improving model

78-81-1
Record
49.1%
Win Rate
-10.84u
Units P/L
91
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-06-23
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.5
MIL @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Tue, Jun 23, 11:10 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +2.6% EV
55% conf Model: 12 vs Market: 9.5
Model vs Market
+7.7
Pitcher
+6.1
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 12 total vs 9.5 market (+2.5 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Brandon Sproat (5.94 ERA) vs Nick Lodolo (6.12 ERA)
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.7
CHC @ NYM
Citi Field · Tue, Jun 23, 11:10 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +4.1% EV
55% conf Model: 11 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+7.7
Pitcher
+8.0
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
+0.5
  • Model projects 11 total vs 8.5 market (+2.5 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Edward Cabrera (5.21 ERA) vs Kodai Senga (9 ERA)
#3
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.5
PHI @ WSH
Nationals Park · Tue, Jun 23, 10:45 PM UTC
ML HOME +150
at Hard Rock Bet (+150) +2.2% EV
41% conf
Model vs Market
+6.1
Pitcher
+3.2
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Washington Nationals win prob: 40.9% model vs 38.9% market (1.9% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: PJ Poulin (3.07 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (4.2 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +150
  • Scout pick (edge 1.5 below 2.6 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-150-2-1.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-142-0+0.83uROI: +165.5%
2026-06-111-0+0.21uROI: +83.3%
2026-06-100-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-090-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-081-1-0.81uROI: -64.6%
2026-06-072-0+1.38uROI: +110.7%
2026-06-050-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUN
23
TUE
· MIL @ CIN OVER 9.5
11:00 AM
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
5:39 PM
· PHI @ WSH ML HOME +150
5:39 PM
JUN
22
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
L LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
21
SUN
1-1 · -0.53u
L CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM -1.00u
W BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM +0.47u
JUN
20
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
19
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L LAA @ ATH ML AWAY +140
11:01 AM -1.00u
JUN
18
THU
1-0 · +0.36u
W CWS @ NYY ML AWAY +145
5:46 PM +0.36u
JUN
17
WED
0-2 · -0.50u
L COL @ CHC ML AWAY +160
11:04 AM -0.25u
L CLE @ MIL ML AWAY +107
5:44 PM -0.25u
JUN
16
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L MIA @ PHI ML AWAY +146
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
15
MON
0-2 · -1.25u
L TB @ LAD ML AWAY +141
11:57 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ ARI ML AWAY +110
11:57 AM -0.25u
JUN
14
SUN
2-0 · +0.83u
W COL @ ATH ML AWAY +166
10:44 AM +0.41u
W LAD @ CWS ML HOME +165
12:42 PM +0.41u
JUN
13
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
12
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
11
THU
1-0 · +0.21u
W ARI @ MIA ML HOME -120
11:09 AM +0.21u
JUN
10
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L CHC @ COL OVER 11.5
11:03 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ MIA OVER 8.5
5:44 PM -0.25u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
19%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.15 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.5 Min ML Edge: 2.6 Version: 91
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement