MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 11, 2026, 6:11 PM ET · Self-improving model

22-33
Record
40.0%
Win Rate
-13.45u
Units P/L
17
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-11
#1 2.7
LAA @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Sat, Apr 11, 8:10 PM UTC
ML HOME -135
at Hard Rock Bet (-135) +3.1% EV
59% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+2.0
Pitcher
+9.9
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Cincinnati Reds win prob: 59.2% model vs 55.1% market (4.1% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Brandon Williamson (4.76 ERA) vs George Klassen (6.75 ERA)
#2 2.2
NYY @ TB
Tropicana Field · Sat, Apr 11, 10:10 PM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Bovada (-110) +4.9% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 6.6 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-5.1
Pitcher
-4.3
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.6 total vs 7.5 market (-0.9 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Max Fried (1.35 ERA) vs Nick Martinez (4.45 ERA)
#3 2.0
ARI @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Sat, Apr 11, 5:05 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Bovada (-115) +4.2% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 12.2 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+7.6
Pitcher
+1.2
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 12.2 total vs 8.5 market (+3.7 run gap)
#4 1.4
TEX @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Sun, Apr 12, 1:10 AM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (+100) +1.1% EV
51% conf 1u Model: 8.7 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-1.8
Pitcher
-3.0
Weather
-2.4
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Jack Leiter (3.86 ERA) vs Emmet Sheehan (2.82 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 54.6°F, 2.2mph wind
#5 1.9
WSH @ MIL
American Family Field · Sat, Apr 11, 11:10 PM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +0.6% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 7.9 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-4.2
Pitcher
-2.2
Weather
0.0
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
-1.5
  • Model projects 7.9 total vs 8.5 market (-0.6 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Foster Griffin (2.7 ERA) vs Kyle Harrison (4.56 ERA)
  • Book spread: 8-8.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
  • Line movement signal: sharp money on UNDER
#6 1.4
CLE @ ATL
Truist Park · Sat, Apr 11, 11:15 PM UTC
UNDER 8
at Bovada (+100) +1.2% EV
51% conf 1u Model: 7.7 vs Market: 8
Model vs Market
-3.3
Pitcher
-2.7
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.7 total vs 8 market (-0.3 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Parker Messick (2.72 ERA) vs Martín Pérez (3.54 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-073-1+2.07uROI: +46.0%
2026-04-061-2-1.00uROI: -16.7%
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
Pick History
APR
11
SAT
· LAA @ CIN ML HOME -135
10:11 AM
· NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
10:11 AM
· ARI @ PHI OVER 8.5
10:11 AM
· TEX @ LAD UNDER 8.5
12:13 PM
· WSH @ MIL UNDER 8.5
3:19 PM
· CLE @ ATL UNDER 8
6:11 PM
APR
10
FRI
0-4 · -4.50u
L BOS @ STL ML AWAY -145
10:23 AM -1.50u
L COL @ SD ML AWAY +155
10:23 AM -1.00u
L WSH @ MIL ML HOME -210
10:23 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ CIN ML HOME -185
12:24 PM -1.00u
APR
9
THU
1-4 · -3.73u
L CIN @ MIA ML AWAY +105
10:35 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ NYM UNDER 7.5
10:35 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN OVER 8
10:35 AM -1.00u
L COL @ SD UNDER 7.5
12:37 PM -1.00u
W CWS @ KC UNDER 9.5
3:32 PM +0.77u
APR
8
WED
0-4 · -4.00u
L HOU @ COL OVER 11.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L STL @ WSH OVER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN ML AWAY -149
10:33 AM -1.00u
L ATL @ LAA UNDER 8.5
3:33 PM -1.00u
APR
7
TUE
3-1 · +2.07u
W BAL @ CWS ML AWAY -140
10:32 AM +1.07u
L SEA @ TEX OVER 7.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
W DET @ MIN UNDER 6.5
10:32 AM +1.00u
W CHC @ TB ML AWAY +100
3:30 PM +1.00u
APR
6
MON
1-2 · -1.00u
L CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM -2.00u
W HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM +3.00u
L SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM -2.00u
APR
5
SUN
1-3 · -2.06u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM -1.50u
L CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM -1.00u
W PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM +1.44u
L ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM -1.00u
APR
4
SAT
1-3 · -1.90u
W HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM +1.60u
L MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM -1.00u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM -1.00u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM -1.50u
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
27%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Weather
13%
Line Value
15%
Line Movement
18%
Total Bias: -1.61 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.3 Min ML Edge: 2.2 Version: 17
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement