MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Sep 24, 2026, 11:35 AM ET · Self-improving model

156-170-1
Record
47.9%
Win Rate
-14.23u
Units P/L
81
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-09-24
#1
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 0.7
SD @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Fri, Sep 25, 2:10 AM UTC
ML AWAY +145
at Hard Rock Bet (+145) -2.6% EV
40% conf
Model vs Market
-2.0
Pitcher
-0.2
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • San Diego Padres win prob: 39.8% model vs 39.2% market (0.6% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (3.3 ERA) vs Tyler Glasnow (3.46 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +145 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
#2
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 0.8
MIL @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Thu, Sep 24, 10:05 PM UTC
ML AWAY +114
at Bovada (+114) -2.0% EV
46% conf
Model vs Market
-3.3
Pitcher
0.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Milwaukee Brewers win prob: 45.8% model vs 45.1% market (0.7% edge)
  • Away underdog at +114 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-09-230-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-222-0+0.53uROI: +105.0%
2026-09-200-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-191-2-0.22uROI: -29.3%
2026-09-180-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-162-1+0.37uROI: +49.3%
2026-09-150-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-141-1+0.04uROI: +9.0%
2026-09-131-1+0.16uROI: +32.5%
2026-09-121-1+0.03uROI: +5.0%
2026-09-112-1+1.05uROI: +70.0%
2026-09-101-0+0.26uROI: +105.0%
2026-09-091-0+0.34uROI: +135.0%
2026-09-082-0+0.62uROI: +124.5%
Pick History
SEP
24
THU
· SD @ LAD ML AWAY +145
2:57 AM
· MIL @ PHI ML AWAY +114
11:34 AM
SEP
23
WED
0-2 · -0.50u
L TOR @ BAL OVER 7.5
3:00 AM -0.25u
L HOU @ SEA ML AWAY +110
7:31 PM -0.25u
SEP
22
TUE
2-0 · +0.53u
W LAA @ ATH OVER 9.5
3:03 AM +0.25u
W CLE @ BOS ML AWAY +110
11:13 AM +0.28u
SEP
21
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
SEP
20
SUN
0-2 · -0.50u
L ATH @ CLE OVER 7.5
3:16 AM -0.25u
L SF @ LAD ML AWAY +220
10:22 AM -0.25u
SEP
19
SAT
1-2 · -0.22u
W WSH @ STL ML AWAY +112
2:51 AM +0.28u
L SEA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:02 AM -0.25u
L ATL @ HOU UNDER 8.5
6:49 PM -0.25u
SEP
18
FRI
0-1 · -0.25u
L SF @ LAD ML AWAY +250
2:52 AM -0.25u
SEP
17
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
SEP
16
WED
2-1 · +0.37u
W MIA @ ARI ML AWAY +116
3:00 AM +0.29u
W SF @ STL ML AWAY +132
3:00 AM +0.33u
L DET @ TOR ML AWAY +114
11:11 AM -0.25u
SEP
15
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L KC @ HOU ML AWAY +139
2:58 AM -0.25u
SEP
14
MON
1-1 · +0.04u
L ATL @ CHC ML AWAY +114
3:22 AM -0.25u
W DET @ TOR ML AWAY +118
12:40 PM +0.29u
SEP
13
SUN
1-1 · +0.16u
W CIN @ MIL ML AWAY +165
2:59 AM +0.41u
L HOU @ TB ML AWAY +117
2:59 AM -0.25u
SEP
12
SAT
1-1 · +0.03u
L KC @ BOS ML AWAY +158
2:42 AM -0.25u
W PIT @ CHC UNDER 8.5
2:42 AM +0.28u
SEP
11
FRI
2-1 · +1.05u
L COL @ DET ML AWAY +157
2:50 AM -0.25u
W SEA @ ATH OVER 10.5
10:40 AM +1.05u
W HOU @ TB UNDER 7.5
10:40 AM +0.25u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
29%
Pitcher Edge
29%
Line Value
15%
Line Movement
27%
Total Bias: +0.18 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.0 Min ML Edge: 1.2 Version: 81
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement