MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Sep 19, 2026, 2:52 AM ET · Self-improving model

153-163-1
Record
48.4%
Win Rate
-13.29u
Units P/L
75
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-09-19
#1
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.4
WSH @ STL
Busch Stadium · Sat, Sep 19, 11:15 PM UTC
ML AWAY +112
at Bovada (+112) +1.3% EV
48% conf
Model vs Market
-3.2
Pitcher
-1.4
Weather
+1.8
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Washington Nationals win prob: 47.8% model vs 46.0% market (1.8% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Andrew Alvarez (3.35 ERA) vs Michael McGreevy (3.83 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +112 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-09-162-1+0.37uROI: +49.3%
2026-09-150-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-141-1+0.04uROI: +9.0%
2026-09-131-1+0.16uROI: +32.5%
2026-09-121-1+0.03uROI: +5.0%
2026-09-112-1+1.05uROI: +70.0%
2026-09-101-0+0.26uROI: +105.0%
2026-09-091-0+0.34uROI: +135.0%
2026-09-082-0+0.62uROI: +124.5%
2026-09-070-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-060-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-051-2-0.23uROI: -31.3%
2026-09-040-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-09-022-0+0.57uROI: +115.0%
Pick History
SEP
19
SAT
· WSH @ STL ML AWAY +112
2:51 AM
SEP
18
FRI
· SF @ LAD ML AWAY +250
2:52 AM
SEP
17
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
SEP
16
WED
2-1 · +0.37u
W MIA @ ARI ML AWAY +116
3:00 AM +0.29u
W SF @ STL ML AWAY +132
3:00 AM +0.33u
L DET @ TOR ML AWAY +114
11:11 AM -0.25u
SEP
15
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L KC @ HOU ML AWAY +139
2:58 AM -0.25u
SEP
14
MON
1-1 · +0.04u
L ATL @ CHC ML AWAY +114
3:22 AM -0.25u
W DET @ TOR ML AWAY +118
12:40 PM +0.29u
SEP
13
SUN
1-1 · +0.16u
W CIN @ MIL ML AWAY +165
2:59 AM +0.41u
L HOU @ TB ML AWAY +117
2:59 AM -0.25u
SEP
12
SAT
1-1 · +0.03u
L KC @ BOS ML AWAY +158
2:42 AM -0.25u
W PIT @ CHC UNDER 8.5
2:42 AM +0.28u
SEP
11
FRI
2-1 · +1.05u
L COL @ DET ML AWAY +157
2:50 AM -0.25u
W SEA @ ATH OVER 10.5
10:40 AM +1.05u
W HOU @ TB UNDER 7.5
10:40 AM +0.25u
SEP
10
THU
1-0 · +0.26u
W PIT @ CWS UNDER 7.5
2:50 AM +0.26u
SEP
9
WED
1-0 · +0.34u
W PIT @ CWS ML AWAY +135
2:54 AM +0.34u
SEP
8
TUE
2-0 · +0.62u
W LAA @ BOS ML AWAY +126
2:45 AM +0.32u
W HOU @ PHI ML AWAY +123
2:45 AM +0.31u
SEP
7
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
L CIN @ LAD ML AWAY +134
2:49 AM -0.25u
SEP
6
SUN
0-2 · -0.50u
L WSH @ LAD ML AWAY +180
2:40 AM -0.25u
L LAA @ PIT ML AWAY +165
2:40 AM -0.25u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
31%
Pitcher Edge
29%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
26%
Total Bias: +0.23 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 75
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement