MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 9, 2026, 12:37 PM ET · Self-improving model

21-25
Record
45.7%
Win Rate
-5.22u
Units P/L
15
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-09
#1 3.5
CIN @ MIA
loanDepot park · Thu, Apr 9, 4:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +105
at Bovada (+105) +25.0% EV
61% conf 1.5u
Model vs Market
-4.1
Pitcher
-10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Cincinnati Reds win prob: 61.0% model vs 47.3% market (13.7% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Rhett Lowder (1.64 ERA) vs Max Meyer (4.73 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +105
#2 2.5
ARI @ NYM
Citi Field · Thu, Apr 9, 11:10 PM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-135) +0.4% EV
58% conf 1u Model: 6.2 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-5.8
Pitcher
-2.5
Weather
-3.9
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.2 total vs 7.5 market (-1.3 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Eduardo Rodriguez (5.02 ERA) vs Nolan McLean (2.06 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 42°F, 6.8mph wind
  • Book spread: 7-7.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#3 2.2
DET @ MIN
Target Field · Thu, Apr 9, 5:40 PM UTC
OVER 8
at Bovada (-115) +0.6% EV
54% conf 1u Model: 12.1 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+8.1
Pitcher
+0.8
Weather
-1.5
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 12.1 total vs 8.5 market (+3.6 run gap)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 46.2°F, 7.2mph wind
  • Book spread: 8-8.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#4 2.0
COL @ SD
Petco Park · Fri, Apr 10, 1:40 AM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (+100) +4.8% EV
52% conf 1u Model: 6.3 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-5.5
Pitcher
-2.6
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.3 total vs 7.5 market (-1.2 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Jimmy Herget (2.48 ERA) vs Randy Vásquez (3.84 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-073-1+2.07uROI: +46.0%
2026-04-061-2-1.00uROI: -16.7%
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
9
THU
· CIN @ MIA ML AWAY +105
10:35 AM
· ARI @ NYM UNDER 7.5
10:35 AM
· DET @ MIN OVER 8
10:35 AM
· COL @ SD UNDER 7.5
12:37 PM
APR
8
WED
0-4 · -4.00u
L HOU @ COL OVER 11.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L STL @ WSH OVER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN ML AWAY -149
10:33 AM -1.00u
L ATL @ LAA UNDER 8.5
3:33 PM -1.00u
APR
7
TUE
3-1 · +2.07u
W BAL @ CWS ML AWAY -140
10:32 AM +1.07u
L SEA @ TEX OVER 7.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
W DET @ MIN UNDER 6.5
10:32 AM +1.00u
W CHC @ TB ML AWAY +100
3:30 PM +1.00u
APR
6
MON
1-2 · -1.00u
L CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM -2.00u
W HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM +3.00u
L SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM -2.00u
APR
5
SUN
1-3 · -2.06u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM -1.50u
L CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM -1.00u
W PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM +1.44u
L ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM -1.00u
APR
4
SAT
1-3 · -1.90u
W HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM +1.60u
L MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM -1.00u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM -1.00u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM -1.50u
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
29%
Pitcher Edge
27%
Weather
11%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
19%
Total Bias: -1.24 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.0 Min ML Edge: 2.0 Version: 15
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement