MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 6, 2026, 12:21 PM ET · Self-improving model

17-18
Record
48.6%
Win Rate
-2.29u
Units P/L
12
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-06
#1 4.7
CIN @ MIA
loanDepot park · Mon, Apr 6, 10:40 PM UTC
OVER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +8.1% EV
60% conf 2u Model: 11 vs Market: 8
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
+10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11 total vs 8 market (+3.0 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Brandon Williamson (11.57 ERA) vs Janson Junk (4.17 ERA)
  • Book spread: 7.5-8 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2 4.4
HOU @ COL
Coors Field · Tue, Apr 7, 12:40 AM UTC
ML HOME +150
at Hard Rock Bet (+150) +70.5% EV
68% conf 2u
Model vs Market
+8.9
Pitcher
+10.0
Weather
-3.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Colorado Rockies win prob: 68.2% model vs 38.6% market (29.6% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Ryan Feltner (4.75 ERA) vs Cody Bolton (13.5 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +150
#3 4.0
SD @ PIT
PNC Park · Mon, Apr 6, 10:40 PM UTC
ML HOME -135
at Hard Rock Bet (-135) +48.0% EV
85% conf 2u
Model vs Market
+9.0
Pitcher
+9.6
Weather
-3.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Pittsburgh Pirates win prob: 85.0% model vs 55.1% market (29.9% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Bubba Chandler (4.02 ERA) vs Germán Márquez (6.7 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
6
MON
· CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM
· HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM
· SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM
APR
5
SUN
1-3 · -2.06u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM -1.50u
L CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM -1.00u
W PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM +1.44u
L ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM -1.00u
APR
4
SAT
1-3 · -1.90u
W HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM +1.60u
L MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM -1.00u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM -1.00u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM -1.50u
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Weather
10%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
20%
Total Bias: +1.17 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.1 Min ML Edge: 1.7 Version: 12
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement