MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 25, 2026, 5:32 PM ET · Self-improving model

57-63-1
Record
47.5%
Win Rate
-8.90u
Units P/L
62
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-25
#1 2.4
HOU @ TEX
Globe Life Field · Mon, May 25, 11:05 PM UTC
ML HOME -126
at Bovada (-126) +0.5% EV
56% conf 0.25u
Model vs Market
+3.9
Pitcher
+10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Texas Rangers win prob: 56.0% model vs 53.9% market (2.2% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Kumar Rocker (3.6 ERA) vs Tatsuya Imai (8.31 ERA)
  • Scout pick (edge 2.4 below 3.0 threshold) — small stake for data
#2 2.6
HOU @ TEX
Globe Life Field · Mon, May 25, 11:05 PM UTC
OVER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +0.3% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 10.5 vs Market: 8
Model vs Market
+7.2
Pitcher
+5.1
Weather
0.0
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
+1.5
  • Model projects 10.5 total vs 8 market (+2.5 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Tatsuya Imai (8.31 ERA) vs Kumar Rocker (3.6 ERA)
  • Book spread: 7.5-8 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
  • Line movement signal: sharp money on OVER
#3 0.9
COL @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Tue, May 26, 1:10 AM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Bovada (-120) +0.1% EV
55% conf 0.25u Model: 9.8 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+3.6
Pitcher
+3.1
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
-0.5
  • Model projects 9.8 total vs 8.5 market (+1.3 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Tanner Gordon (6.59 ERA) vs Emmet Sheehan (4.93 ERA)
  • Scout pick (edge 0.9 below 2.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-241-1-0.03uROI: -6.5%
2026-05-231-0-1+0.33uROI: +26.0%
2026-05-221-1-0.13uROI: -6.5%
2026-05-202-0+1.67uROI: +83.5%
2026-05-191-1+0.70uROI: +56.2%
2026-05-180-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-172-0+1.47uROI: +83.9%
2026-05-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-150-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-140-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-131-0+0.22uROI: +87.0%
2026-05-123-1+3.22uROI: +75.7%
2026-05-111-0+0.39uROI: +155.0%
2026-05-102-0+1.39uROI: +79.2%
Pick History
MAY
25
MON
· HOU @ TEX ML HOME -126
11:01 AM
· HOU @ TEX OVER 7.5
5:32 PM
· COL @ LAD OVER 8.5
5:32 PM
MAY
24
SUN
1-1 · -0.03u
W NYM @ MIA UNDER 8.5
10:29 AM +0.22u
L DET @ BAL ML AWAY +111
5:24 PM -0.25u
MAY
23
SAT
1-0 · +0.33u
P COL @ ARI OVER 9
10:30 AM +0.00u
W HOU @ CHC ML AWAY +130
10:30 AM +0.33u
MAY
22
FRI
1-1 · -0.13u
L CWS @ SF UNDER 7.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W TEX @ LAA OVER 7.5
11:00 AM +0.87u
MAY
21
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
20
WED
2-0 · +1.67u
W LAD @ SD UNDER 7.5
11:03 AM +0.87u
W TOR @ NYY UNDER 8.5
11:03 AM +0.80u
MAY
19
TUE
1-1 · +0.70u
W ATL @ MIA OVER 8.5
11:02 AM +0.95u
L HOU @ MIN OVER 8.5
5:37 PM -0.25u
MAY
18
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
L CIN @ PHI OVER 9.5
11:03 AM -0.25u
MAY
17
SUN
2-0 · +1.47u
W BOS @ ATL OVER 8.5
10:29 AM +1.25u
W ARI @ COL OVER 10.5
10:29 AM +0.22u
MAY
16
SAT
0-1 · -0.25u
L LAD @ LAA UNDER 8.5
10:27 AM -0.25u
MAY
15
FRI
0-2 · -1.75u
L ARI @ COL OVER 11.5
10:48 AM -1.50u
L LAD @ LAA ML HOME +190
10:48 AM -0.25u
MAY
14
THU
0-2 · -0.50u
L SEA @ HOU ML HOME +110
10:51 AM -0.25u
L SF @ LAD ML AWAY +150
5:32 PM -0.25u
MAY
13
WED
1-0 · +0.22u
W MIA @ MIN OVER 8.5
10:59 AM +0.22u
MAY
12
TUE
3-1 · +3.22u
W SD @ MIL OVER 8.5
10:55 AM +1.30u
L LAA @ CLE ML AWAY +115
10:55 AM -0.25u
W WSH @ CIN OVER 9.5
5:34 PM +1.36u
W ARI @ TEX OVER 7.5
5:34 PM +0.80u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
19%
Weather
19%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: -0.20 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.5 Min ML Edge: 3.0 Version: 62
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement