MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 17, 2026, 5:58 PM ET · Self-improving model

103-106-1
Record
49.3%
Win Rate
-13.75u
Units P/L
12
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-17
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 1.9
SD @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Sat, Jul 18, 12:10 AM UTC
UNDER 10.5
at Bovada (-115) +1.9% EV
55% conf Model: 8.9 vs Market: 10.5
Model vs Market
-5.6
Pitcher
-0.5
Weather
+3.3
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 8.9 total vs 10.5 market (-1.6 run gap)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 88.8°F, 12.5mph wind
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 1.7
CWS @ TOR
Rogers Centre · Fri, Jul 17, 11:15 PM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +0.2% EV
53% conf Model: 7.5 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-3.8
Pitcher
-1.7
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.5 total vs 8.5 market (-1.0 run gap)
#3
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.6
TEX @ ATL
Truist Park · Fri, Jul 17, 11:15 PM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) -0.1% EV
55% conf Model: 7.1 vs Market: 8.25
Model vs Market
-4.3
Pitcher
-3.9
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.1 total vs 8.25 market (-1.2 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Cal Quantrill (3.11 ERA) vs Chris Sale (2.2 ERA)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 90.4°F, 7.7mph wind
  • Book spread: 8-8.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-161-0+0.29uROI: +115.0%
2026-07-120-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-110-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-100-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-091-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-07-082-1+0.63uROI: +21.1%
2026-07-072-1+0.86uROI: +57.5%
2026-07-062-0+1.67uROI: +83.3%
2026-07-052-1+0.29uROI: +12.8%
2026-07-041-1+0.51uROI: +40.6%
2026-07-033-0+1.18uROI: +78.9%
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUL
17
FRI
· SD @ KC UNDER 10.5
8:02 AM
· CWS @ TOR UNDER 8.5
8:02 AM
· TEX @ ATL UNDER 8.5
8:02 AM
JUL
16
THU
1-0 · +0.29u
W NYM @ PHI ML AWAY +115
8:13 AM +0.29u
JUL
14
TUE
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
12
SUN
0-3 · -2.25u
L ATH @ CWS ML AWAY +102
7:49 AM -0.25u
L ATL @ STL OVER 8.5
7:49 AM -1.00u
L COL @ SF OVER 8.5
7:49 AM -1.00u
JUL
11
SAT
0-3 · -2.25u
L COL @ SF OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L TOR @ SD ML AWAY +100
7:43 AM -0.25u
L ATL @ STL OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
JUL
10
FRI
0-3 · -3.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ MIN OVER 9.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
L BOS @ NYM UNDER 7.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
JUL
9
THU
1-2 · -0.34u
W ATL @ PIT OVER 9.5
9:51 AM +0.91u
L KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
9:51 AM -0.25u
L CHC @ BAL OVER 9.5
9:51 AM -1.00u
JUL
8
WED
2-1 · +0.63u
L COL @ LAD ML AWAY +200
11:57 AM -1.00u
W ATH @ DET ML HOME -138
11:57 AM +0.72u
W KC @ NYM UNDER 9.5
6:12 PM +0.91u
JUL
7
TUE
2-1 · +0.86u
W ATH @ DET UNDER 8.5
12:20 PM +0.80u
L MIL @ STL ML HOME +175
12:20 PM -0.25u
W KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
6:16 PM +0.31u
JUL
6
MON
2-0 · +1.67u
W COL @ LAD OVER 9.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
W NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
JUL
5
SUN
2-1 · +0.29u
W SF @ COL OVER 12.5
11:06 AM +0.80u
L PHI @ KC OVER 9.5
11:06 AM -1.00u
W SD @ LAD ML AWAY +195
6:07 PM +0.49u
JUL
4
SAT
1-1 · +0.51u
L PHI @ KC ML HOME +130
10:58 AM -0.25u
W SF @ COL ML AWAY -132
6:03 PM +0.76u
JUL
3
FRI
3-0 · +1.18u
W PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM +0.67u
W SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM +0.33u
W TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM +0.19u
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
32%
Pitcher Edge
28%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
26%
Total Bias: -0.54 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 12
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement