MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Aug 4, 2026, 6:17 PM ET · Self-improving model

118-127-1
Record
48.2%
Win Rate
-18.83u
Units P/L
30
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-08-04
#1
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 0.9
SF @ TEX
Globe Life Field · Wed, Aug 5, 12:05 AM UTC
ML AWAY +175
at Hard Rock Bet (+175) +2.8% EV
37% conf
Model vs Market
-3.9
Pitcher
+2.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • San Francisco Giants win prob: 37.4% model vs 36.0% market (1.3% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Blade Tidwell (9 ERA) vs MacKenzie Gore (4.77 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +175 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 1.5
LAD @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Wed, Aug 5, 12:05 AM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (+110) +3.9% EV
49% conf Model: 7.9 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-2.0
Pitcher
-3.3
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.9 total vs 8.5 market (-0.6 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Tarik Skubal (2.79 ERA) vs Javier Assad (3.75 ERA)
#3
Full Bet 0.25u Edge 2.8
DET @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Wed, Aug 5, 1:40 AM UTC
ML AWAY +110
at Hard Rock Bet (+110) +3.3% EV
49% conf
Model vs Market
-2.4
Pitcher
-4.7
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
-3.1
  • Detroit Tigers win prob: 49.2% model vs 46.4% market (2.8% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Troy Melton (1.75 ERA) vs Emerson Hancock (3.26 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +110 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-08-031-1+0.09uROI: +17.5%
2026-08-021-1+0.13uROI: +25.0%
2026-08-010-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-311-0+0.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-07-291-2-0.21uROI: -27.3%
2026-07-281-0+0.25uROI: +100.0%
2026-07-261-1+0.14uROI: +28.5%
2026-07-251-2-0.25uROI: -33.3%
2026-07-241-1+0.04uROI: +9.0%
2026-07-231-1+0.04uROI: +8.5%
2026-07-222-0+0.57uROI: +114.5%
2026-07-212-0+1.86uROI: +93.1%
2026-07-200-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-192-1+0.74uROI: +24.7%
Pick History
AUG
4
TUE
· SF @ TEX ML AWAY +175
12:55 AM
· LAD @ CHC UNDER 8.5
8:52 AM
· DET @ SEA ML AWAY +110
6:17 PM
AUG
3
MON
1-1 · +0.09u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +135
1:33 AM -0.25u
W PIT @ MIL ML AWAY +135
6:12 PM +0.34u
AUG
2
SUN
1-1 · +0.13u
W BOS @ LAD ML AWAY +150
1:19 AM +0.38u
L MIN @ SEA ML AWAY +120
1:19 AM -0.25u
AUG
1
SAT
0-2 · -0.50u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +125
1:19 AM -0.25u
L KC @ COL ML AWAY +110
6:00 PM -0.25u
JUL
31
FRI
1-0 · +0.27u
W MIA @ NYM ML AWAY +109
1:27 AM +0.27u
JUL
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
29
WED
1-2 · -0.21u
L SEA @ LAD ML AWAY +126
1:12 AM -0.25u
W ARI @ PIT ML AWAY +118
1:12 AM +0.29u
L TOR @ WSH OVER 9.5
8:54 AM -0.25u
JUL
28
TUE
1-0 · +0.25u
W CHC @ STL OVER 9
12:56 AM +0.25u
JUL
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
26
SUN
1-1 · +0.14u
W KC @ DET ML AWAY +157
1:23 AM +0.39u
L CLE @ TB ML AWAY +125
7:54 AM -0.25u
JUL
25
SAT
1-2 · -0.25u
W CLE @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:58 AM +0.25u
L COL @ MIL ML AWAY +190
7:55 AM -0.25u
L ATH @ MIN ML AWAY +130
6:00 PM -0.25u
JUL
24
FRI
1-1 · +0.04u
L KC @ DET ML AWAY +235
1:12 AM -0.25u
W NYY @ PHI ML AWAY +118
6:10 PM +0.29u
JUL
23
THU
1-1 · +0.04u
W MIN @ CLE ML AWAY +117
1:17 AM +0.29u
L KC @ DET ML AWAY +190
6:09 PM -0.25u
JUL
22
WED
2-0 · +0.57u
W BAL @ BOS ML AWAY +125
1:00 AM +0.31u
W DET @ CHC ML AWAY +104
6:10 PM +0.26u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
27%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
29%
Total Bias: -0.15 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 30
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement