MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 1, 2026, 5:37 PM ET · Self-improving model

85-88-1
Record
49.1%
Win Rate
-11.30u
Units P/L
99
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-01
#1
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 0.8
DET @ NYY
Yankee Stadium · Wed, Jul 1, 5:35 PM UTC
ML AWAY +120
at Hard Rock Bet (+120) -2.8% EV
44% conf
Model vs Market
-2.3
Pitcher
-5.1
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Detroit Tigers win prob: 44.2% model vs 43.7% market (0.5% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Troy Melton (2.39 ERA) vs Will Warren (3.75 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +120
  • Scout pick (edge 0.8 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.0
MIA @ COL
Coors Field · Thu, Jul 2, 12:40 AM UTC
ML AWAY -160
at Hard Rock Bet (-160) -2.5% EV
60% conf
Model vs Market
-2.6
Pitcher
-10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Miami Marlins win prob: 60.0% model vs 58.9% market (1.1% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Max Meyer (2.6 ERA) vs Kyle Freeland (7.5 ERA)
#3
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.0
MIN @ HOU
Daikin Park · Thu, Jul 2, 12:10 AM UTC
ML AWAY +123
at Bovada (+123) -2.0% EV
44% conf
Model vs Market
-2.7
Pitcher
-4.2
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
-0.5
  • Minnesota Twins win prob: 43.9% model vs 43.2% market (0.7% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Taj Bradley (3.98 ERA) vs Tatsuya Imai (5.36 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +123
  • Scout pick (edge 1.0 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-150-2-1.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-142-0+0.83uROI: +165.5%
Pick History
JUL
1
WED
· DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM
· MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM
· MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
JUN
25
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
24
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
23
TUE
1-2 · -0.34u
L MIL @ CIN OVER 9.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
5:39 PM +0.91u
L PHI @ WSH ML HOME +150
5:39 PM -0.25u
JUN
22
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
L LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
21
SUN
1-1 · -0.53u
L CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM -1.00u
W BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM +0.47u
JUN
20
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
19
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L LAA @ ATH ML AWAY +140
11:01 AM -1.00u
JUN
18
THU
1-0 · +0.36u
W CWS @ NYY ML AWAY +145
5:46 PM +0.36u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
18%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.53 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 99
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement