MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 8, 2026, 5:28 PM ET · Self-improving model

39-51
Record
43.3%
Win Rate
-17.03u
Units P/L
45
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-08
#1 1.7
COL @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Fri, May 8, 10:40 PM UTC
ML AWAY +180
at Bovada (+180) +5.3% EV
38% conf 0.25u
Model vs Market
-4.5
Pitcher
-5.4
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Colorado Rockies win prob: 37.6% model vs 34.2% market (3.4% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Chase Dollander (3.38 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (5.09 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +180
  • Scout pick (edge 1.7 below 2.6 threshold) — small stake for data
#2 1.9
MIN @ CLE
Progressive Field · Fri, May 8, 11:15 PM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +4.8% EV
56% conf 0.25u Model: 6.9 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-2.7
Pitcher
-4.5
Weather
-3.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.9 total vs 7.5 market (-0.6 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Connor Prielipp (3.86 ERA) vs Parker Messick (2.4 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 53.4°F, 7.1mph wind
  • Scout pick (edge 1.9 below 2.1 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-071-0+0.21uROI: +83.3%
2026-05-060-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-051-0+0.91uROI: +90.9%
2026-05-042-0+1.61uROI: +80.7%
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
Pick History
MAY
8
FRI
· COL @ PHI ML AWAY +180
10:34 AM
· MIN @ CLE UNDER 7.5
5:28 PM
MAY
7
THU
1-0 · +0.21u
W TEX @ NYY OVER 8.5
10:54 AM +0.21u
MAY
6
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L SD @ SF OVER 8.5
10:53 AM -1.50u
L ATL @ SEA ML AWAY +115
10:53 AM -0.25u
MAY
5
TUE
1-0 · +0.91u
W LAD @ HOU UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM +0.91u
MAY
4
MON
2-0 · +1.61u
W TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM +0.81u
W SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM +0.80u
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
29
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
26
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
25
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
24
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: -0.62 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.1 Min ML Edge: 2.6 Version: 45
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement