MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 12, 2026, 5:56 PM ET · Self-improving model

102-103-1
Record
49.8%
Win Rate
-11.79u
Units P/L
7
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-12
#1
Full Bet 0.25u Edge 3.0
ATH @ CWS
Rate Field · Sun, Jul 12, 6:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +102
at Bovada (+102) +0.9% EV
50% conf
Model vs Market
-2.7
Pitcher
-7.3
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Athletics win prob: 49.9% model vs 48.2% market (1.8% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: J.T. Ginn (3.1 ERA) vs Noah Schultz (6 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +102 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.1
ATL @ STL
Busch Stadium · Sun, Jul 12, 6:15 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-105) +1.8% EV
52% conf Model: 10.7 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+5.8
Pitcher
+0.9
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 10.7 total vs 8.5 market (+2.2 run gap)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 86.4°F, 7.5mph wind
#3
Full Bet 1u Edge 3.9
COL @ SF
Oracle Park · Sun, Jul 12, 8:05 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-120) -2.0% EV
53% conf Model: 11.2 vs Market: 8.75
Model vs Market
+6.6
Pitcher
+5.9
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11.2 total vs 8.75 market (+2.4 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Michael Lorenzen (6.46 ERA) vs Trevor McDonald (5.46 ERA)
  • Book spread: 8.5-9 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-110-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-100-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-091-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-07-082-1+0.63uROI: +21.1%
2026-07-072-1+0.86uROI: +57.5%
2026-07-062-0+1.67uROI: +83.3%
2026-07-052-1+0.29uROI: +12.8%
2026-07-041-1+0.51uROI: +40.6%
2026-07-033-0+1.18uROI: +78.9%
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
Pick History
JUL
12
SUN
· ATH @ CWS ML AWAY +102
7:49 AM
· ATL @ STL OVER 8.5
7:49 AM
· COL @ SF OVER 8.5
7:49 AM
JUL
11
SAT
0-3 · -2.25u
L COL @ SF OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L TOR @ SD ML AWAY +100
7:43 AM -0.25u
L ATL @ STL OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
JUL
10
FRI
0-3 · -3.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ MIN OVER 9.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
L BOS @ NYM UNDER 7.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
JUL
9
THU
1-2 · -0.34u
W ATL @ PIT OVER 9.5
9:51 AM +0.91u
L KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
9:51 AM -0.25u
L CHC @ BAL OVER 9.5
9:51 AM -1.00u
JUL
8
WED
2-1 · +0.63u
L COL @ LAD ML AWAY +200
11:57 AM -1.00u
W ATH @ DET ML HOME -138
11:57 AM +0.72u
W KC @ NYM UNDER 9.5
6:12 PM +0.91u
JUL
7
TUE
2-1 · +0.86u
W ATH @ DET UNDER 8.5
12:20 PM +0.80u
L MIL @ STL ML HOME +175
12:20 PM -0.25u
W KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
6:16 PM +0.31u
JUL
6
MON
2-0 · +1.67u
W COL @ LAD OVER 9.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
W NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
JUL
5
SUN
2-1 · +0.29u
W SF @ COL OVER 12.5
11:06 AM +0.80u
L PHI @ KC OVER 9.5
11:06 AM -1.00u
W SD @ LAD ML AWAY +195
6:07 PM +0.49u
JUL
4
SAT
1-1 · +0.51u
L PHI @ KC ML HOME +130
10:58 AM -0.25u
W SF @ COL ML AWAY -132
6:03 PM +0.76u
JUL
3
FRI
3-0 · +1.18u
W PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM +0.67u
W SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM +0.33u
W TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM +0.19u
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
32%
Pitcher Edge
28%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
26%
Total Bias: -0.51 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 7
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement