MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 29, 2026, 1:12 AM ET · Self-improving model

113-121-1
Record
48.3%
Win Rate
-18.86u
Units P/L
23
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-29
#1
Full Bet 0.25u Edge 2.6
SEA @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Thu, Jul 30, 2:10 AM UTC
ML AWAY +126
at Bovada (+126) +3.7% EV
46% conf
Model vs Market
-3.0
Pitcher
-5.5
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Seattle Mariners win prob: 45.9% model vs 42.7% market (3.2% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Emerson Hancock (3.16 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (4.83 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +126 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
#2
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 0.8
ARI @ PIT
PNC Park · Wed, Jul 29, 4:35 PM UTC
ML AWAY +118
at Bovada (+118) -2.9% EV
45% conf
Model vs Market
-0.6
Pitcher
-2.1
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Arizona Diamondbacks win prob: 44.5% model vs 44.3% market (0.2% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez (2.64 ERA) vs Jared Jones (3.72 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +118 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-261-1+0.14uROI: +28.5%
2026-07-251-2-0.25uROI: -33.3%
2026-07-241-1+0.04uROI: +9.0%
2026-07-231-1+0.04uROI: +8.5%
2026-07-222-0+0.57uROI: +114.5%
2026-07-212-0+1.86uROI: +93.1%
2026-07-200-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-192-1+0.74uROI: +24.7%
2026-07-180-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-170-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-161-0+0.29uROI: +115.0%
2026-07-120-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-110-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-100-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUL
29
WED
· SEA @ LAD ML AWAY +126
1:12 AM
· ARI @ PIT ML AWAY +118
1:12 AM
JUL
28
TUE
· CHC @ STL OVER 9
12:56 AM
JUL
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
26
SUN
1-1 · +0.14u
W KC @ DET ML AWAY +157
1:23 AM +0.39u
L CLE @ TB ML AWAY +125
7:54 AM -0.25u
JUL
25
SAT
1-2 · -0.25u
W CLE @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:58 AM +0.25u
L COL @ MIL ML AWAY +190
7:55 AM -0.25u
L ATH @ MIN ML AWAY +130
6:00 PM -0.25u
JUL
24
FRI
1-1 · +0.04u
L KC @ DET ML AWAY +235
1:12 AM -0.25u
W NYY @ PHI ML AWAY +118
6:10 PM +0.29u
JUL
23
THU
1-1 · +0.04u
W MIN @ CLE ML AWAY +117
1:17 AM +0.29u
L KC @ DET ML AWAY +190
6:09 PM -0.25u
JUL
22
WED
2-0 · +0.57u
W BAL @ BOS ML AWAY +125
1:00 AM +0.31u
W DET @ CHC ML AWAY +104
6:10 PM +0.26u
JUL
21
TUE
2-0 · +1.86u
W LAD @ PHI UNDER 8.5
1:12 AM +0.95u
W DET @ CHC OVER 8.5
1:12 AM +0.91u
JUL
20
MON
0-3 · -3.00u
L TB @ TOR UNDER 7.5
1:32 AM -1.00u
L MIN @ CLE UNDER 7.5
1:32 AM -1.00u
L NYM @ MIL UNDER 7.5
9:00 AM -1.00u
JUL
19
SUN
2-1 · +0.74u
W TB @ BOS UNDER 8.5
1:13 AM +0.91u
L SF @ SEA UNDER 7.5
1:13 AM -1.00u
W CWS @ TOR UNDER 8.5
1:13 AM +0.83u
JUL
18
SAT
0-3 · -2.25u
L MIA @ MIL UNDER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L BAL @ HOU OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L MIN @ CHC ML AWAY +120
7:43 AM -0.25u
JUL
17
FRI
0-3 · -3.00u
L SD @ KC UNDER 10.5
8:02 AM -1.00u
L CWS @ TOR UNDER 8.5
8:02 AM -1.00u
L TEX @ ATL UNDER 8.5
8:02 AM -1.00u
JUL
16
THU
1-0 · +0.29u
W NYM @ PHI ML AWAY +115
8:13 AM +0.29u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
27%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
28%
Total Bias: -0.08 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.1 Min ML Edge: 1.3 Version: 23
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement