MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 21, 2026, 8:19 AM ET · Self-improving model

105-116-1
Record
47.5%
Win Rate
-21.26u
Units P/L
16
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-21
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 3.7
LAD @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Tue, Jul 21, 10:40 PM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-105) +2.5% EV
53% conf Model: 6.3 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-7.0
Pitcher
-5.5
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.3 total vs 8.5 market (-2.2 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Justin Wrobleski (2.69 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (2.13 ERA)
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 3.4
DET @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Wed, Jul 22, 12:05 AM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Bovada (-110) +1.3% EV
53% conf Model: 11.5 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+7.1
Pitcher
+4.2
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11.5 total vs 8.5 market (+3.0 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Framber Valdez (4.1 ERA) vs David Peterson (6.45 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-200-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-192-1+0.74uROI: +24.7%
2026-07-180-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-170-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-161-0+0.29uROI: +115.0%
2026-07-120-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-110-3-2.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-100-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-07-091-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-07-082-1+0.63uROI: +21.1%
2026-07-072-1+0.86uROI: +57.5%
2026-07-062-0+1.67uROI: +83.3%
2026-07-052-1+0.29uROI: +12.8%
2026-07-041-1+0.51uROI: +40.6%
Pick History
JUL
21
TUE
· LAD @ PHI UNDER 8.5
1:12 AM
· DET @ CHC OVER 8.5
1:12 AM
JUL
20
MON
0-3 · -3.00u
L TB @ TOR UNDER 7.5
1:32 AM -1.00u
L MIN @ CLE UNDER 7.5
1:32 AM -1.00u
L NYM @ MIL UNDER 7.5
9:00 AM -1.00u
JUL
19
SUN
2-1 · +0.74u
W TB @ BOS UNDER 8.5
1:13 AM +0.91u
L SF @ SEA UNDER 7.5
1:13 AM -1.00u
W CWS @ TOR UNDER 8.5
1:13 AM +0.83u
JUL
18
SAT
0-3 · -2.25u
L MIA @ MIL UNDER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L BAL @ HOU OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L MIN @ CHC ML AWAY +120
7:43 AM -0.25u
JUL
17
FRI
0-3 · -3.00u
L SD @ KC UNDER 10.5
8:02 AM -1.00u
L CWS @ TOR UNDER 8.5
8:02 AM -1.00u
L TEX @ ATL UNDER 8.5
8:02 AM -1.00u
JUL
16
THU
1-0 · +0.29u
W NYM @ PHI ML AWAY +115
8:13 AM +0.29u
JUL
14
TUE
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUL
12
SUN
0-3 · -2.25u
L ATH @ CWS ML AWAY +102
7:49 AM -0.25u
L ATL @ STL OVER 8.5
7:49 AM -1.00u
L COL @ SF OVER 8.5
7:49 AM -1.00u
JUL
11
SAT
0-3 · -2.25u
L COL @ SF OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
L TOR @ SD ML AWAY +100
7:43 AM -0.25u
L ATL @ STL OVER 8.5
7:43 AM -1.00u
JUL
10
FRI
0-3 · -3.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ MIN OVER 9.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
L BOS @ NYM UNDER 7.5
9:03 AM -1.00u
JUL
9
THU
1-2 · -0.34u
W ATL @ PIT OVER 9.5
9:51 AM +0.91u
L KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
9:51 AM -0.25u
L CHC @ BAL OVER 9.5
9:51 AM -1.00u
JUL
8
WED
2-1 · +0.63u
L COL @ LAD ML AWAY +200
11:57 AM -1.00u
W ATH @ DET ML HOME -138
11:57 AM +0.72u
W KC @ NYM UNDER 9.5
6:12 PM +0.91u
JUL
7
TUE
2-1 · +0.86u
W ATH @ DET UNDER 8.5
12:20 PM +0.80u
L MIL @ STL ML HOME +175
12:20 PM -0.25u
W KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
6:16 PM +0.31u
JUL
6
MON
2-0 · +1.67u
W COL @ LAD OVER 9.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
W NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
29%
Total Bias: -0.05 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 16
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement