MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 5, 2026, 5:28 PM ET · Self-improving model

37-49
Record
43.0%
Win Rate
-16.40u
Units P/L
42
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-05
#1 2.4
LAD @ HOU
Daikin Park · Tue, May 5 at 8:10 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
at Bovada (-110) +5.5% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 7.1 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-3.7
Pitcher
-7.9
Weather
-2.4
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.1 total vs 8.5 market (-1.4 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Shohei Ohtani (0.6 ERA) vs Peter Lambert (3.52 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 55.3°F, 8.4mph wind
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-042-0+1.61uROI: +80.7%
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
MAY
5
TUE
· LAD @ HOU UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM
MAY
4
MON
2-0 · +1.61u
W TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM +0.81u
W SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM +0.80u
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
29
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
26
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
25
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
24
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
23
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
22
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
21
TUE
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: +0.10 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.8 Min ML Edge: 2.3 Version: 42
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement