MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jun 21, 2026, 10:45 AM ET · Self-improving model

77-79-1
Record
49.4%
Win Rate
-10.06u
Units P/L
89
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-06-21
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.0
CLE @ HOU
Daikin Park · Sun, Jun 21, 6:10 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-120) +1.2% EV
55% conf Model: 10.6 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+7.8
Pitcher
+0.6
Weather
+2.4
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 10.6 total vs 8.5 market (+2.1 run gap)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 86.9°F, 4.5mph wind
#2
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.7
BAL @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Sun, Jun 21, 8:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +190
at Bovada (+190) +4.0% EV
36% conf
Model vs Market
-3.9
Pitcher
-4.6
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Baltimore Orioles win prob: 35.9% model vs 33.3% market (2.6% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Brandon Young (3.18 ERA) vs Emmet Sheehan (4.76 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +190
  • Scout pick (edge 1.6 below 2.4 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-150-2-1.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-142-0+0.83uROI: +165.5%
2026-06-111-0+0.21uROI: +83.3%
2026-06-100-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-090-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-081-1-0.81uROI: -64.6%
2026-06-072-0+1.38uROI: +110.7%
2026-06-050-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-040-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-031-0+0.16uROI: +65.4%
Pick History
JUN
21
SUN
· CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM
· BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM
JUN
20
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
19
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L LAA @ ATH ML AWAY +140
11:01 AM -1.00u
JUN
18
THU
1-0 · +0.36u
W CWS @ NYY ML AWAY +145
5:46 PM +0.36u
JUN
17
WED
0-2 · -0.50u
L COL @ CHC ML AWAY +160
11:04 AM -0.25u
L CLE @ MIL ML AWAY +107
5:44 PM -0.25u
JUN
16
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L MIA @ PHI ML AWAY +146
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
15
MON
0-2 · -1.25u
L TB @ LAD ML AWAY +141
11:57 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ ARI ML AWAY +110
11:57 AM -0.25u
JUN
14
SUN
2-0 · +0.83u
W COL @ ATH ML AWAY +166
10:44 AM +0.41u
W LAD @ CWS ML HOME +165
12:42 PM +0.41u
JUN
13
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
12
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
11
THU
1-0 · +0.21u
W ARI @ MIA ML HOME -120
11:09 AM +0.21u
JUN
10
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L CHC @ COL OVER 11.5
11:03 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ MIA OVER 8.5
5:44 PM -0.25u
JUN
9
TUE
0-1 · -0.25u
L LAD @ PIT ML HOME -110
11:25 AM -0.25u
JUN
8
MON
1-1 · -0.81u
W HOU @ LAA ML AWAY -130
11:06 AM +0.19u
L MIL @ ATH UNDER 11
5:38 PM -1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
19%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +1.01 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.5 Min ML Edge: 2.4 Version: 89
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement