MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 15, 2026, 10:32 AM ET · Self-improving model

29-41
Record
41.4%
Win Rate
-15.60u
Units P/L
21
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-15
#1 2.4
CLE @ STL
Busch Stadium · Wed, Apr 15, 5:15 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +4.5% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 11.4 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+9.5
Pitcher
+0.9
Weather
+1.8
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11.4 total vs 8.5 market (+2.9 run gap)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 81.8°F, 14.6mph wind
#2 2.3
NYM @ LAD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · Thu, Apr 16, 2:10 AM UTC
UNDER 8
at Bovada (-120) -1.0% EV
54% conf 1u Model: 5.9 vs Market: 8
Model vs Market
-5.5
Pitcher
-3.3
Weather
-2.4
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 5.9 total vs 8 market (-2.1 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Clay Holmes (3.53 ERA) vs Shohei Ohtani (2.87 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 52.3°F, 3.9mph wind
  • Book spread: 7.5-8 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-073-1+2.07uROI: +46.0%
2026-04-061-2-1.00uROI: -16.7%
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
Pick History
APR
15
WED
· CLE @ STL OVER 8.5
10:32 AM
· NYM @ LAD UNDER 8
10:32 AM
APR
14
TUE
4-0 · +3.81u
W CHC @ PHI ML AWAY +120
10:34 AM +1.20u
W NYM @ LAD UNDER 7.5
10:34 AM +0.91u
W ARI @ BAL UNDER 9
12:32 PM +0.87u
W COL @ HOU OVER 8.5
6:20 PM +0.83u
APR
13
MON
0-1 · -1.00u
L CHC @ PHI UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
APR
12
SUN
0-4 · -4.50u
L LAA @ CIN UNDER 8.5
10:13 AM -1.50u
L CWS @ KC UNDER 9
10:13 AM -1.00u
L MIA @ DET ML AWAY +170
10:13 AM -1.00u
L HOU @ SEA OVER 7.5
3:20 PM -1.00u
APR
11
SAT
3-3 · -0.46u
W LAA @ CIN ML HOME -135
10:11 AM +0.74u
L NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
10:11 AM -1.00u
L ARI @ PHI OVER 8.5
10:11 AM -1.00u
L TEX @ LAD UNDER 8.5
12:13 PM -1.00u
W WSH @ MIL UNDER 8.5
3:19 PM +0.80u
W CLE @ ATL UNDER 8
6:11 PM +1.00u
APR
10
FRI
0-4 · -4.50u
L BOS @ STL ML AWAY -145
10:23 AM -1.50u
L COL @ SD ML AWAY +155
10:23 AM -1.00u
L WSH @ MIL ML HOME -210
10:23 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ CIN ML HOME -185
12:24 PM -1.00u
APR
9
THU
1-4 · -3.73u
L CIN @ MIA ML AWAY +105
10:35 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ NYM UNDER 7.5
10:35 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN OVER 8
10:35 AM -1.00u
L COL @ SD UNDER 7.5
12:37 PM -1.00u
W CWS @ KC UNDER 9.5
3:32 PM +0.77u
APR
8
WED
0-4 · -4.00u
L HOU @ COL OVER 11.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L STL @ WSH OVER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN ML AWAY -149
10:33 AM -1.00u
L ATL @ LAA UNDER 8.5
3:33 PM -1.00u
APR
7
TUE
3-1 · +2.07u
W BAL @ CWS ML AWAY -140
10:32 AM +1.07u
L SEA @ TEX OVER 7.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
W DET @ MIN UNDER 6.5
10:32 AM +1.00u
W CHC @ TB ML AWAY +100
3:30 PM +1.00u
APR
6
MON
1-2 · -1.00u
L CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM -2.00u
W HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM +3.00u
L SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM -2.00u
APR
5
SUN
1-3 · -2.06u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM -1.50u
L CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM -1.00u
W PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM +1.44u
L ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM -1.00u
APR
4
SAT
1-3 · -1.90u
W HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM +1.60u
L MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM -1.00u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM -1.00u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM -1.50u
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
23%
Pitcher Edge
22%
Weather
16%
Line Value
18%
Line Movement
20%
Total Bias: +0.54 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.7 Min ML Edge: 2.6 Version: 21
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement