MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 4, 2026, 10:58 AM ET · Self-improving model

92-91-1
Record
50.3%
Win Rate
-10.16u
Units P/L
102
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-04
#1
Scout Bet 0.25u Edge 1.3
PHI @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Sun, Jul 5, 12:10 AM UTC
ML HOME +130
at Bovada (+130) -0.5% EV
43% conf
Model vs Market
+4.4
Pitcher
+2.0
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Kansas City Royals win prob: 43.3% model vs 42.0% market (1.3% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (3.31 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.88 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +130
  • Scout pick (edge 1.3 below 1.5 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-033-0+1.18uROI: +78.9%
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUL
4
SAT
· PHI @ KC ML HOME +130
10:58 AM
JUL
3
FRI
3-0 · +1.18u
W PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM +0.67u
W SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM +0.33u
W TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM +0.19u
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
JUN
25
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
24
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
23
TUE
1-2 · -0.34u
L MIL @ CIN OVER 9.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
5:39 PM +0.91u
L PHI @ WSH ML HOME +150
5:39 PM -0.25u
JUN
22
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
L LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
21
SUN
1-1 · -0.53u
L CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM -1.00u
W BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM +0.47u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
19%
Weather
18%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.07 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 102
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement