MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 9, 2026, 6:36 PM ET · Self-improving model

101-95-1
Record
51.5%
Win Rate
-6.20u
Units P/L
4
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-09
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.7
ATL @ PIT
PNC Park · Thu, Jul 9, 4:35 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +3.1% EV
54% conf Model: 13.9 vs Market: 9.5
Model vs Market
+7.3
Pitcher
+0.8
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 13.9 total vs 9.5 market (+4.4 run gap)
#2
Full Bet 0.25u Edge 2.4
KC @ NYM
Citi Field · Thu, Jul 9, 5:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +125
at Hard Rock Bet (+125) +1.0% EV
45% conf
Model vs Market
-2.9
Pitcher
-4.3
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Kansas City Royals win prob: 44.9% model vs 42.9% market (2.0% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (3.45 ERA) vs Sean Manaea (4.76 ERA)
  • Away underdog at +125 — probe stake (only ML segment with a historical edge)
#3
Full Bet 1u Edge 4.1
CHC @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Thu, Jul 9, 5:35 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-120) 0.0% EV
55% conf Model: 12.6 vs Market: 9.75
Model vs Market
+7.3
Pitcher
+5.3
Weather
0.0
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 12.6 total vs 9.75 market (+2.8 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: David Peterson (6.75 ERA) vs Trevor Rogers (4.7 ERA)
  • Book spread: 9.5-10 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-082-1+0.63uROI: +21.1%
2026-07-072-1+0.86uROI: +57.5%
2026-07-062-0+1.67uROI: +83.3%
2026-07-052-1+0.29uROI: +12.8%
2026-07-041-1+0.51uROI: +40.6%
2026-07-033-0+1.18uROI: +78.9%
2026-07-022-2+0.35uROI: +10.8%
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
Pick History
JUL
9
THU
· ATL @ PIT OVER 9.5
9:51 AM
· KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
9:51 AM
· CHC @ BAL OVER 9.5
9:51 AM
JUL
8
WED
2-1 · +0.63u
L COL @ LAD ML AWAY +200
11:57 AM -1.00u
W ATH @ DET ML HOME -138
11:57 AM +0.72u
W KC @ NYM UNDER 9.5
6:12 PM +0.91u
JUL
7
TUE
2-1 · +0.86u
W ATH @ DET UNDER 8.5
12:20 PM +0.80u
L MIL @ STL ML HOME +175
12:20 PM -0.25u
W KC @ NYM ML AWAY +125
6:16 PM +0.31u
JUL
6
MON
2-0 · +1.67u
W COL @ LAD OVER 9.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
W NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
12:47 PM +0.83u
JUL
5
SUN
2-1 · +0.29u
W SF @ COL OVER 12.5
11:06 AM +0.80u
L PHI @ KC OVER 9.5
11:06 AM -1.00u
W SD @ LAD ML AWAY +195
6:07 PM +0.49u
JUL
4
SAT
1-1 · +0.51u
L PHI @ KC ML HOME +130
10:58 AM -0.25u
W SF @ COL ML AWAY -132
6:03 PM +0.76u
JUL
3
FRI
3-0 · +1.18u
W PIT @ WSH ML HOME -150
11:48 AM +0.67u
W SF @ COL ML HOME +130
11:48 AM +0.33u
W TOR @ SEA ML AWAY -130
6:10 PM +0.19u
JUL
2
THU
2-2 · +0.35u
W MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM +0.80u
L PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM -1.00u
W LAA @ SEA UNDER 7.5
5:29 PM +0.80u
L SD @ LAD ML AWAY +165
5:29 PM -0.25u
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
33%
Pitcher Edge
29%
Line Value
12%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: -0.16 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 4
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement