MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 1, 2026, 6:16 PM ET · Self-improving model

10-6
Record
62.5%
Win Rate
+3.83u
Units P/L
6
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-01
#1 3.1
SF @ SD
Petco Park · Wed, Apr 1, 8:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +130
at Hard Rock Bet (+130) +70.4% EV
74% conf 1.5u
Model vs Market
-9.7
Pitcher
-1.9
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • San Francisco Giants win prob: 74.1% model vs 41.8% market (32.3% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Adrian Houser (2.1 ERA) vs Nick Pivetta (2.87 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +130
#2 2.7
TEX @ BAL
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Wed, Apr 1, 4:35 PM UTC
ML HOME -115
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +54.4% EV
83% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+9.3
Pitcher
-0.3
Weather
+0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Baltimore Orioles win prob: 82.6% model vs 51.5% market (31.1% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Trevor Rogers (1.81 ERA) vs Nathan Eovaldi (1.73 ERA)
#3 2.6
PIT @ CIN
Great American Ball Park · Wed, Apr 1, 4:40 PM UTC
ML HOME +138
at Bovada (+138) +102.3% EV
85% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
-3.1
Weather
-0.3
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Cincinnati Reds win prob: 85.0% model vs 40.5% market (44.5% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Andrew Abbott (2.87 ERA) vs Paul Skenes (1.97 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +138
#4 3.1
MIN @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Wed, Apr 1, 11:40 PM UTC
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +8.1% EV
58% conf 1.5u Model: 7.1 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-4.2
Pitcher
-3.5
Weather
-1.5
Line Value
0.0
Movement
-9.5
  • Model projects 7.1 total vs 8.5 market (-1.4 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Joe Ryan (3.42 ERA) vs Noah Cameron (2.99 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 56.9°F, 12.5mph wind
  • Line movement signal: sharp money on UNDER
#5 1.6
DET @ ARI
Chase Field · Wed, Apr 1, 7:40 PM UTC
OVER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +1.7% EV
54% conf 1u Model: 9.6 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
+6.3
Pitcher
-3.5
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
+6.5
  • Model projects 9.6 total vs 7.5 market (+2.1 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA) vs Zac Gallen (4.83 ERA)
  • Line movement signal: sharp money on OVER
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
1
WED
· SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
· TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
· PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
· MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM
· DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
25%
Weather
20%
Line Value
10%
Line Movement
15%
Total Bias: +0.28 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 6
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement