MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Jul 2, 2026, 10:44 AM ET · Self-improving model

87-89-1
Record
49.4%
Win Rate
-11.69u
Units P/L
100
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-07-02
#1
Full Bet 1u Edge 3.4
MIA @ COL
Coors Field · Thu, Jul 2, 7:10 PM UTC
OVER 11.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +0.1% EV
56% conf Model: 15.9 vs Market: 12
Model vs Market
+8.3
Pitcher
+5.9
Weather
+4.5
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 15.9 total vs 12 market (+3.9 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Ryan Gusto (5.06 ERA) vs Michael Lorenzen (6.83 ERA)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 86.7°F, 15mph wind
  • Book spread: 11.5-12 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2
Full Bet 1u Edge 2.7
PIT @ PHI
Citizens Bank Park · Thu, Jul 2, 4:35 PM UTC
ML HOME -130
at Hard Rock Bet (-130) -2.9% EV
55% conf
Model vs Market
+1.3
Pitcher
+9.9
Weather
+4.5
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Philadelphia Phillies win prob: 54.9% model vs 54.6% market (0.3% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Alan Rangel (2.45 ERA) vs Jared Jones (5.76 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-07-012-1-0.39uROI: -26.2%
2026-06-300-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-292-0+1.60uROI: +80.2%
2026-06-281-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-270-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-263-1+1.92uROI: +59.0%
2026-06-231-2-0.34uROI: -15.2%
2026-06-220-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-211-1-0.53uROI: -42.0%
2026-06-190-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-181-0+0.36uROI: +145.0%
2026-06-170-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-06-150-2-1.25uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
JUL
2
THU
· MIA @ COL OVER 11.5
10:44 AM
· PIT @ PHI ML HOME -130
10:44 AM
JUL
1
WED
2-1 · -0.39u
W DET @ NYY ML AWAY +120
10:57 AM +0.30u
L MIA @ COL ML AWAY -160
5:37 PM -1.00u
W MIN @ HOU ML AWAY +123
5:37 PM +0.31u
JUN
30
TUE
0-2 · -2.00u
L DET @ NYY ML HOME -124
10:50 AM -1.00u
L STL @ ATL ML HOME -145
10:50 AM -1.00u
JUN
29
MON
2-0 · +1.60u
W LAA @ SEA OVER 7.5
11:08 AM +0.87u
W SF @ ARI ML HOME -136
11:08 AM +0.74u
JUN
28
SUN
1-0 · +0.36u
W CHC @ MIL ML AWAY +145
10:33 AM +0.36u
JUN
27
SAT
0-2 · -2.00u
L CHC @ MIL ML HOME -162
10:30 AM -1.00u
L COL @ MIN ML HOME -143
10:30 AM -1.00u
JUN
26
FRI
3-1 · +1.92u
W ARI @ TB ML HOME -140
10:52 AM +0.71u
L WSH @ BAL ML AWAY +115
10:52 AM -0.25u
W KC @ CWS OVER 8.5
5:35 PM +0.83u
W PHI @ NYM ML AWAY -161
5:35 PM +0.62u
JUN
25
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
24
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
23
TUE
1-2 · -0.34u
L MIL @ CIN OVER 9.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
5:39 PM +0.91u
L PHI @ WSH ML HOME +150
5:39 PM -0.25u
JUN
22
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
· CHC @ NYM OVER 8.5
11:38 AM
L LAD @ MIN ML HOME +130
11:38 AM -0.25u
JUN
21
SUN
1-1 · -0.53u
L CLE @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:45 AM -1.00u
W BAL @ LAD ML AWAY +190
10:45 AM +0.47u
JUN
20
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
JUN
19
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L LAA @ ATH ML AWAY +140
11:01 AM -1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
18%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
18%
Line Value
20%
Line Movement
25%
Total Bias: +0.53 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 100
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement