MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 4, 2026, 5:30 PM ET · Self-improving model

35-49
Record
41.7%
Win Rate
-18.01u
Units P/L
41
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-04
#1 2.5
TOR @ TB
Tropicana Field · Mon, May 4 at 6:40 PM EDT
ML HOME -123
at Bovada (-123) +2.4% EV
56% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+4.5
Pitcher
+10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Tampa Bay Rays win prob: 56.5% model vs 53.0% market (3.5% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Nick Martinez (1.7 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (6 ERA)
#2 2.2
SD @ SF
Oracle Park · Mon, May 4 at 9:45 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +0.7% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 7.1 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
-3.7
Pitcher
-5.6
Weather
-3.9
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.1 total vs 8.5 market (-1.4 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Randy Vásquez (2.94 ERA) vs Trevor McDonald (1.8 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 52.9°F, 5.6mph wind
  • Book spread: 8-8.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-073-1+2.07uROI: +46.0%
Pick History
MAY
4
MON
· TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM
· SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
29
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
26
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
25
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
24
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
23
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
22
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
21
TUE
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
20
MON
1-1 · -0.03u
W ATL @ WSH ML AWAY -155
10:33 AM +0.97u
L BAL @ KC UNDER 9
10:33 AM -1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: +0.35 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.7 Min ML Edge: 2.2 Version: 41
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement