MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 4, 2026, 3:16 PM ET · Self-improving model

15-12
Record
55.6%
Win Rate
+1.67u
Units P/L
10
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-04
#1 4.6
HOU @ ATH
Sutter Health Park · Sat, Apr 4, 8:05 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +8.5% EV
60% conf 2u Model: 13.7 vs Market: 10
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
+10.0
Weather
0.0
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 13.7 total vs 10 market (+3.7 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Tatsuya Imai (13.5 ERA) vs Luis Morales (3.14 ERA)
  • Book spread: 9.5-10 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2 2.8
MIL @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Sat, Apr 4, 11:10 PM UTC
ML HOME +100
at Hard Rock Bet (+100) +70.0% EV
85% conf 1u
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
+1.8
Weather
-3.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Kansas City Royals win prob: 85.0% model vs 48.5% market (36.5% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (4.15 ERA) vs Brandon Sproat (4.79 ERA)
#3 2.8
SEA @ LAA
Angel Stadium · Sun, Apr 5, 1:38 AM UTC
ML AWAY -160
at Bovada (-160) +24.6% EV
77% conf 1u
Model vs Market
-5.3
Pitcher
-6.5
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Seattle Mariners win prob: 76.7% model vs 59.1% market (17.6% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Emerson Hancock (4.9 ERA) vs Jack Kochanowicz (6.81 ERA)
#4 3.2
PHI @ COL
Coors Field · Sun, Apr 5, 12:10 AM UTC
ML HOME +195
at Hard Rock Bet (+195) +136.6% EV
80% conf 1.5u
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
+2.3
Weather
-3.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Colorado Rockies win prob: 80.2% model vs 32.8% market (47.4% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Brennan Bernardino (3.14 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.92 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +195
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
4
SAT
· HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM
· MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM
· SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM
· PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
29%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Weather
12%
Line Value
13%
Line Movement
20%
Total Bias: +1.60 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.2 Min ML Edge: 1.5 Version: 10
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement