MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 6, 2026, 10:53 AM ET · Self-improving model

38-49
Record
43.7%
Win Rate
-15.49u
Units P/L
43
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-06
#1 3.0
SD @ SF
Oracle Park · Wed, May 6, 7:45 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +6.8% EV
57% conf 1.5u Model: 11.6 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+8.8
Pitcher
+9.5
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11.6 total vs 8.5 market (+3.1 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Matt Waldron (7.71 ERA) vs Adrian Houser (7.12 ERA)
#2 1.9
ATL @ SEA
T-Mobile Park · Wed, May 6, 8:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY +115
at Hard Rock Bet (+115) +0.7% EV
47% conf 0.25u
Model vs Market
-2.2
Pitcher
-7.3
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Atlanta Braves win prob: 46.8% model vs 44.8% market (2.1% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Martín Pérez (2.22 ERA) vs Bryan Woo (4.61 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +115
  • Scout pick (edge 1.9 below 2.4 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-051-0+0.91uROI: +90.9%
2026-05-042-0+1.61uROI: +80.7%
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
Pick History
MAY
6
WED
· SD @ SF OVER 8.5
10:53 AM
· ATL @ SEA ML AWAY +115
10:53 AM
MAY
5
TUE
1-0 · +0.91u
W LAD @ HOU UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM +0.91u
MAY
4
MON
2-0 · +1.61u
W TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM +0.81u
W SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM +0.80u
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
29
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
26
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
25
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
24
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
23
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
22
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: -0.32 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.9 Min ML Edge: 2.4 Version: 43
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement