MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 9, 2026, 5:21 PM ET · Self-improving model

40-52
Record
43.5%
Win Rate
-16.83u
Units P/L
46
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-09
#1 2.4
DET @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Sat, May 9, 11:10 PM UTC
UNDER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-120) +0.4% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 7.1 vs Market: 9.5
Model vs Market
-7.6
Pitcher
-6.2
Weather
0.0
Line Value
-1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 7.1 total vs 9.5 market (-2.4 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Burch Smith (1.59 ERA) vs Michael Wacha (3.05 ERA)
  • Book spread: 9-9.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2 2.2
NYY @ MIL
American Family Field · Sat, May 9, 11:10 PM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-115) +3.8% EV
56% conf 1u Model: 6.4 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-3.7
Pitcher
-8.4
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 6.4 total vs 7.5 market (-1.1 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Cam Schlittler (1.52 ERA) vs Kyle Harrison (2.12 ERA)
#3 1.7
PIT @ SF
Oracle Park · Sun, May 10, 1:05 AM UTC
UNDER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125) +2.1% EV
57% conf 0.25u Model: 6.8 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
-2.5
Pitcher
-4.5
Weather
-1.5
Line Value
0.0
Movement
-0.5
  • Model projects 6.8 total vs 7.5 market (-0.7 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Braxton Ashcraft (3.02 ERA) vs Landen Roupp (3.18 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 53°F, 12.7mph wind
  • Scout pick (edge 1.7 below 2.2 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-081-1+0.20uROI: +40.0%
2026-05-071-0+0.21uROI: +83.3%
2026-05-060-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-051-0+0.91uROI: +90.9%
2026-05-042-0+1.61uROI: +80.7%
2026-04-201-1-0.03uROI: -1.3%
2026-04-192-0+2.05uROI: +81.8%
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
MAY
9
SAT
· DET @ KC UNDER 9.5
10:22 AM
· NYY @ MIL UNDER 7.5
10:22 AM
· PIT @ SF UNDER 7.5
5:21 PM
MAY
8
FRI
1-1 · +0.20u
W COL @ PHI ML AWAY +180
10:34 AM +0.45u
L MIN @ CLE UNDER 7.5
5:28 PM -0.25u
MAY
7
THU
1-0 · +0.21u
W TEX @ NYY OVER 8.5
10:54 AM +0.21u
MAY
6
WED
0-2 · -1.75u
L SD @ SF OVER 8.5
10:53 AM -1.50u
L ATL @ SEA ML AWAY +115
10:53 AM -0.25u
MAY
5
TUE
1-0 · +0.91u
W LAD @ HOU UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM +0.91u
MAY
4
MON
2-0 · +1.61u
W TOR @ TB ML HOME -123
4:07 PM +0.81u
W SD @ SF UNDER 8.5
4:07 PM +0.80u
MAY
3
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
2
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
1
FRI
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
30
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
29
WED
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
27
MON
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
26
SUN
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
APR
25
SAT
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
18%
Weather
21%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
23%
Total Bias: -0.25 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.2 Min ML Edge: 2.7 Version: 46
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement