MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 7, 2026, 3:30 PM ET · Self-improving model

18-20
Record
47.4%
Win Rate
-3.29u
Units P/L
13
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-07
#1 3.6
BAL @ CWS
Rate Field · Tue, Apr 7, 7:10 PM UTC
ML AWAY -140
at Hard Rock Bet (-140) +43.8% EV
84% conf 1.5u
Model vs Market
-8.2
Pitcher
-6.6
Weather
-3.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Baltimore Orioles win prob: 83.9% model vs 56.4% market (27.5% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Trevor Rogers (1.81 ERA) vs Shane Smith (3.81 ERA)
#2 1.5
SEA @ TEX
Globe Life Field · Wed, Apr 8, 12:05 AM UTC
OVER 7.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-110) +1.0% EV
53% conf 1u Model: 11 vs Market: 7.5
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
-4.9
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11 total vs 7.5 market (+3.5 run gap)
  • Pitching favors UNDER: George Kirby (4.21 ERA) vs Nathan Eovaldi (1.73 ERA)
#3 1.2
DET @ MIN
Target Field · Tue, Apr 7, 11:40 PM UTC
UNDER 6.5
at Hard Rock Bet (+100) +0.5% EV
50% conf 1u Model: 6.2 vs Market: 6.5
Model vs Market
-0.7
Pitcher
-3.8
Weather
-2.1
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Pitching favors UNDER: Tarik Skubal (2.21 ERA) vs Taj Bradley (4.61 ERA)
  • Weather suppresses scoring: 37.1°F, 12mph wind
#4 1.8
CHC @ TB
Tropicana Field · Tue, Apr 7, 10:40 PM UTC
ML AWAY +100
at Hard Rock Bet (+100) +31.2% EV
66% conf 1u
Model vs Market
-5.3
Pitcher
-0.5
Weather
0.0
Line Value
0.0
Movement
-1.8
  • Chicago Cubs win prob: 65.6% model vs 47.8% market (17.8% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Javier Assad (3.65 ERA) vs Mason Englert (3.83 ERA)
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-061-2-1.00uROI: -16.7%
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
2026-04-041-3-1.90uROI: -34.5%
2026-04-032-2-0.18uROI: -4.5%
2026-04-022-0+2.15uROI: +107.7%
2026-04-011-4-4.13uROI: -68.8%
2026-03-314-2+1.16uROI: +19.3%
2026-03-303-0+3.27uROI: +109.0%
2026-03-292-0+2.15uROI: +107.5%
2026-03-281-3-1.75uROI: -43.8%
2026-03-270-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
Pick History
APR
7
TUE
· BAL @ CWS ML AWAY -140
10:32 AM
· SEA @ TEX OVER 7.5
10:32 AM
· DET @ MIN UNDER 6.5
10:32 AM
· CHC @ TB ML AWAY +100
3:30 PM
APR
6
MON
1-2 · -1.00u
L CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM -2.00u
W HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM +3.00u
L SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM -2.00u
APR
5
SUN
1-3 · -2.06u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -170
10:11 AM -1.50u
L CHC @ CLE ML HOME +115
10:11 AM -1.00u
W PHI @ COL ML HOME +144
10:11 AM +1.44u
L ATL @ ARI ML AWAY -109
3:18 PM -1.00u
APR
4
SAT
1-3 · -1.90u
W HOU @ ATH OVER 9.5
10:10 AM +1.60u
L MIL @ KC ML HOME +100
10:10 AM -1.00u
L SEA @ LAA ML AWAY -160
10:10 AM -1.00u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +195
12:13 PM -1.50u
APR
3
FRI
2-2 · -0.18u
L PHI @ COL ML HOME +170
10:15 AM -1.00u
W HOU @ ATH ML HOME -110
10:15 AM +0.91u
W LAD @ WSH OVER 9.5
10:15 AM +0.91u
L ATL @ ARI ML HOME -105
3:19 PM -1.00u
· MIL @ KC UNDER 9.5
6:13 PM
APR
2
THU
2-0 · +2.15u
W MIN @ KC ML AWAY +132
10:27 AM +1.32u
W ATL @ ARI OVER 8.5
10:27 AM +0.83u
APR
1
WED
1-4 · -4.13u
L SF @ SD ML AWAY +130
-1.50u
W TEX @ BAL ML HOME -115
+0.87u
L PIT @ CIN ML HOME +138
-1.00u
L MIN @ KC UNDER 8.5
12:26 PM -1.50u
L DET @ ARI OVER 7.5
3:29 PM -1.00u
MAR
31
TUE
4-2 · +1.16u
L WSH @ PHI ML AWAY +155
-1.00u
W NYY @ SEA ML AWAY -110
+0.91u
W BOS @ HOU ML HOME -148
+0.68u
W SF @ SD OVER 7.5
+0.83u
L COL @ TOR OVER 8
-1.00u
W ATH @ ATL UNDER 9.5
+0.74u
MAR
30
MON
3-0 · +3.27u
W CLE @ LAD ML AWAY +160
+1.60u
W BOS @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.87u
W MIN @ KC UNDER 10.5
+0.80u
MAR
29
SUN
2-0 · +2.15u
W KC @ ATL ML AWAY +138
+1.38u
W LAA @ HOU OVER 8.5
+0.77u
MAR
28
SAT
1-3 · -1.75u
L ATH @ TOR ML AWAY +160
-1.00u
L KC @ ATL ML AWAY +127
-1.00u
L COL @ MIA ML AWAY +164
-1.00u
W TEX @ PHI ML AWAY +125
+1.25u
MAR
27
FRI
0-1 · -1.00u
L ARI @ LAD UNDER 8.5
-1.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
30%
Pitcher Edge
26%
Weather
10%
Line Value
14%
Line Movement
20%
Total Bias: +0.15 runs Min O/U Edge: 1.0 Min ML Edge: 1.8 Version: 13
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement