MLB Prediction Engine

Updated Apr 19, 2026, 12:16 PM ET · Self-improving model

32-48
Record
40.0%
Win Rate
-20.03u
Units P/L
25
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-04-19
#1 3.2
STL @ HOU
Daikin Park · Sun, Apr 19, 6:10 PM UTC
OVER 8.5
at Bovada (-115) +7.3% EV
57% conf 1.5u Model: 12 vs Market: 8.5
Model vs Market
+10.0
Pitcher
+4.5
Weather
+2.1
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 12 total vs 8.5 market (+3.5 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Matthew Liberatore (4.29 ERA) vs Mike Burrows (6.55 ERA)
  • Weather boosts scoring: 60°F, 17.4mph wind
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-04-181-2-1.76uROI: -50.3%
2026-04-172-0+2.33uROI: +77.6%
2026-04-160-3-3.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-150-2-2.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-144-0+3.81uROI: +95.3%
2026-04-130-1-1.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-120-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-113-3-0.46uROI: -7.7%
2026-04-100-4-4.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-091-4-3.73uROI: -67.8%
2026-04-080-4-4.00uROI: -100.0%
2026-04-073-1+2.07uROI: +46.0%
2026-04-061-2-1.00uROI: -16.7%
2026-04-051-3-2.06uROI: -45.8%
Pick History
APR
19
SUN
· STL @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:14 AM
APR
18
SAT
1-2 · -1.76u
L CIN @ MIN ML HOME -135
10:14 AM -1.50u
L TB @ PIT UNDER 7.5
10:14 AM -1.00u
W ATL @ PHI UNDER 7.5
10:14 AM +0.74u
APR
17
FRI
2-0 · +2.33u
W KC @ NYY UNDER 8.5
10:26 AM +1.25u
W SD @ LAA ML HOME -139
10:26 AM +1.08u
APR
16
THU
0-3 · -3.00u
L COL @ HOU OVER 8.5
10:34 AM -1.00u
L TOR @ MIL OVER 8
10:34 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ NYY UNDER 10
12:39 PM -1.00u
APR
15
WED
0-2 · -2.00u
L CLE @ STL OVER 8.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
L NYM @ LAD UNDER 8
10:32 AM -1.00u
APR
14
TUE
4-0 · +3.81u
W CHC @ PHI ML AWAY +120
10:34 AM +1.20u
W NYM @ LAD UNDER 7.5
10:34 AM +0.91u
W ARI @ BAL UNDER 9
12:32 PM +0.87u
W COL @ HOU OVER 8.5
6:20 PM +0.83u
APR
13
MON
0-1 · -1.00u
L CHC @ PHI UNDER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
APR
12
SUN
0-4 · -4.50u
L LAA @ CIN UNDER 8.5
10:13 AM -1.50u
L CWS @ KC UNDER 9
10:13 AM -1.00u
L MIA @ DET ML AWAY +170
10:13 AM -1.00u
L HOU @ SEA OVER 7.5
3:20 PM -1.00u
APR
11
SAT
3-3 · -0.46u
W LAA @ CIN ML HOME -135
10:11 AM +0.74u
L NYY @ TB UNDER 7.5
10:11 AM -1.00u
L ARI @ PHI OVER 8.5
10:11 AM -1.00u
L TEX @ LAD UNDER 8.5
12:13 PM -1.00u
W WSH @ MIL UNDER 8.5
3:19 PM +0.80u
W CLE @ ATL UNDER 8
6:11 PM +1.00u
APR
10
FRI
0-4 · -4.50u
L BOS @ STL ML AWAY -145
10:23 AM -1.50u
L COL @ SD ML AWAY +155
10:23 AM -1.00u
L WSH @ MIL ML HOME -210
10:23 AM -1.00u
L LAA @ CIN ML HOME -185
12:24 PM -1.00u
APR
9
THU
1-4 · -3.73u
L CIN @ MIA ML AWAY +105
10:35 AM -1.50u
L ARI @ NYM UNDER 7.5
10:35 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN OVER 8
10:35 AM -1.00u
L COL @ SD UNDER 7.5
12:37 PM -1.00u
W CWS @ KC UNDER 9.5
3:32 PM +0.77u
APR
8
WED
0-4 · -4.00u
L HOU @ COL OVER 11.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L STL @ WSH OVER 8.5
10:33 AM -1.00u
L DET @ MIN ML AWAY -149
10:33 AM -1.00u
L ATL @ LAA UNDER 8.5
3:33 PM -1.00u
APR
7
TUE
3-1 · +2.07u
W BAL @ CWS ML AWAY -140
10:32 AM +1.07u
L SEA @ TEX OVER 7.5
10:32 AM -1.00u
W DET @ MIN UNDER 6.5
10:32 AM +1.00u
W CHC @ TB ML AWAY +100
3:30 PM +1.00u
APR
6
MON
1-2 · -1.00u
L CIN @ MIA OVER 7.5
10:19 AM -2.00u
W HOU @ COL ML HOME +150
10:19 AM +3.00u
L SD @ PIT ML HOME -135
10:19 AM -2.00u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
21%
Pitcher Edge
20%
Weather
19%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
21%
Total Bias: +0.26 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.1 Min ML Edge: 3.0 Version: 25
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement