Today's Picks — 2026-04-04
HOU @ ATH
Sutter Health Park · Sat, Apr 4, 8:05 PM UTC
OVER 9.5
at Hard Rock Bet (-125)
+8.5% EV
60% conf
2u
Model: 13.7 vs Market: 10
- Model projects 13.7 total vs 10 market (+3.7 run gap)
- Pitching favors OVER: Tatsuya Imai (13.5 ERA) vs Luis Morales (3.14 ERA)
- Book spread: 9.5-10 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
MIL @ KC
Kauffman Stadium · Sat, Apr 4, 11:10 PM UTC
ML HOME +100
at Hard Rock Bet (+100)
+70.0% EV
85% conf
1u
- Kansas City Royals win prob: 85.0% model vs 48.5% market (36.5% edge)
- Pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (4.15 ERA) vs Brandon Sproat (4.79 ERA)
SEA @ LAA
Angel Stadium · Sun, Apr 5, 1:38 AM UTC
ML AWAY -160
at Bovada (-160)
+24.6% EV
77% conf
1u
- Seattle Mariners win prob: 76.7% model vs 59.1% market (17.6% edge)
- Pitching matchup: Emerson Hancock (4.9 ERA) vs Jack Kochanowicz (6.81 ERA)
PHI @ COL
Coors Field · Sun, Apr 5, 12:10 AM UTC
ML HOME +195
at Hard Rock Bet (+195)
+136.6% EV
80% conf
1.5u
- Colorado Rockies win prob: 80.2% model vs 32.8% market (47.4% edge)
- Pitching matchup: Brennan Bernardino (3.14 ERA) vs Jesús Luzardo (3.92 ERA)
- Underdog value at +195