MLB Prediction Engine

Updated May 23, 2026, 5:23 PM ET · Self-improving model

55-62
Record
47.0%
Win Rate
-9.20u
Units P/L
60
Model Version
Today's Picks — 2026-05-23
#1 2.7
COL @ ARI
Chase Field · Sun, May 24, 2:10 AM UTC
OVER 9
at Bovada (-120) +0.4% EV
55% conf 1u Model: 11.8 vs Market: 9.5
Model vs Market
+7.6
Pitcher
+5.8
Weather
0.0
Line Value
+1.0
Movement
0.0
  • Model projects 11.8 total vs 9.5 market (+2.3 run gap)
  • Pitching favors OVER: Michael Lorenzen (7.03 ERA) vs Zac Gallen (4.78 ERA)
  • Book spread: 9-9.5 (0.5 gap — market disagreement)
#2 2.0
HOU @ CHC
Wrigley Field · Sat, May 23, 6:20 PM UTC
ML AWAY +130
at Bovada (+130) +3.8% EV
45% conf 0.25u
Model vs Market
-3.0
Pitcher
-7.8
Weather
-0.9
Line Value
0.0
Movement
0.0
  • Houston Astros win prob: 45.1% model vs 42.1% market (3.0% edge)
  • Pitching matchup: Kai-Wei Teng (2.61 ERA) vs Colin Rea (4.98 ERA)
  • Underdog value at +130
  • Scout pick (edge 2.0 below 3.0 threshold) — small stake for data
Results Log
DateRecordP/LROI
2026-05-221-1-0.13uROI: -6.5%
2026-05-202-0+1.67uROI: +83.5%
2026-05-191-1+0.70uROI: +56.2%
2026-05-180-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-172-0+1.47uROI: +83.9%
2026-05-160-1-0.25uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-150-2-1.75uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-140-2-0.50uROI: -100.0%
2026-05-131-0+0.22uROI: +87.0%
2026-05-123-1+3.22uROI: +75.7%
2026-05-111-0+0.39uROI: +155.0%
2026-05-102-0+1.39uROI: +79.2%
2026-05-092-1+1.45uROI: +64.6%
2026-05-081-1+0.20uROI: +40.0%
Pick History
MAY
23
SAT
· COL @ ARI OVER 9
10:30 AM
· HOU @ CHC ML AWAY +130
10:30 AM
MAY
22
FRI
1-1 · -0.13u
L CWS @ SF UNDER 7.5
11:00 AM -1.00u
W TEX @ LAA OVER 7.5
11:00 AM +0.87u
MAY
21
THU
Strategic pass — no edges met threshold
MAY
20
WED
2-0 · +1.67u
W LAD @ SD UNDER 7.5
11:03 AM +0.87u
W TOR @ NYY UNDER 8.5
11:03 AM +0.80u
MAY
19
TUE
1-1 · +0.70u
W ATL @ MIA OVER 8.5
11:02 AM +0.95u
L HOU @ MIN OVER 8.5
5:37 PM -0.25u
MAY
18
MON
0-1 · -0.25u
L CIN @ PHI OVER 9.5
11:03 AM -0.25u
MAY
17
SUN
2-0 · +1.47u
W BOS @ ATL OVER 8.5
10:29 AM +1.25u
W ARI @ COL OVER 10.5
10:29 AM +0.22u
MAY
16
SAT
0-1 · -0.25u
L LAD @ LAA UNDER 8.5
10:27 AM -0.25u
MAY
15
FRI
0-2 · -1.75u
L ARI @ COL OVER 11.5
10:48 AM -1.50u
L LAD @ LAA ML HOME +190
10:48 AM -0.25u
MAY
14
THU
0-2 · -0.50u
L SEA @ HOU ML HOME +110
10:51 AM -0.25u
L SF @ LAD ML AWAY +150
5:32 PM -0.25u
MAY
13
WED
1-0 · +0.22u
W MIA @ MIN OVER 8.5
10:59 AM +0.22u
MAY
12
TUE
3-1 · +3.22u
W SD @ MIL OVER 8.5
10:55 AM +1.30u
L LAA @ CLE ML AWAY +115
10:55 AM -0.25u
W WSH @ CIN OVER 9.5
5:34 PM +1.36u
W ARI @ TEX OVER 7.5
5:34 PM +0.80u
MAY
11
MON
1-0 · +0.39u
W SF @ LAD ML AWAY +155
11:02 AM +0.39u
MAY
10
SUN
2-0 · +1.39u
W ATL @ LAD UNDER 9.5
10:24 AM +1.11u
W DET @ KC ML AWAY +110
10:24 AM +0.28u
Model Weights (Learned)
Model vs Market
19%
Pitcher Edge
19%
Weather
19%
Line Value
19%
Line Movement
24%
Total Bias: +0.44 runs Min O/U Edge: 2.5 Min ML Edge: 3.0 Version: 60
MLB Prediction Engine v2 · Self-improving edge detection
5 factors: Model vs Market, Pitcher, Weather, Line Value, Line Movement